Are nuclear weapons set to increase after 35 years of decline?

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Nuclear Arsenals Poised for Growth After Decades of Decline

The global number of nuclear weapons is projected to increase in the coming decade, reversing a 35-year trend of reduction. This shift is influenced by escalating global tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the modernization efforts of several nuclear-armed states. In early 2022, the nine nuclear powers—Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, the United States, and Russia—collectively possessed an estimated 12,705 warheads. While this figure represented a decrease of 375 warheads from early 2021, it marks a turning point from the post-Cold War disarmament period.
Global Nuclear Stockpile Reversing Trend

Following a peak of over 70,000 warheads in 1986, the global nuclear stockpile has seen a steady decline, primarily driven by reductions in the vast arsenals of the United States and Russia. However, this era of disarmament is reportedly concluding, with researchers indicating that the global count could begin to rise for the first time since the end of the Cold War. This reversal is occurring despite the entry into force of the UN nuclear weapon ban treaty and the extension of the US-Russian "New START" treaty.
Modernization and Expansion Underway

Several nuclear-armed nations are actively modernizing or expanding their arsenals. China, for instance, is undertaking a substantial expansion, with satellite imagery revealing the construction of over 300 new missile silos, a move that could lead Beijing to possess 700 warheads by 2027, according to Pentagon estimates. Similarly, Britain has announced its intention to raise the ceiling on its total warhead stockpile. These developments suggest an increasing emphasis on nuclear capabilities within national security strategies.
Heightened Risk of Nuclear Escalation

The current geopolitical climate, marked by Russia's war in Ukraine and repeated references to nuclear weapons by President Vladimir Putin, has elevated the risk of nuclear escalation to its highest point in the post-Cold War era. This environment is prompting other nuclear-armed states to re-evaluate their own nuclear strategies. The United States and Russia continue to hold the overwhelming majority of the world's nuclear weapons, accounting for approximately 90% of the total.

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Are nuclear weapons set to increase after 35 years of decline?

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