Can air strikes alone achieve regime change in Iran?

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Air Strikes Alone Unlikely to Achieve Regime Change in Iran, Analysts Say

Analysts express significant doubt that air strikes alone can achieve regime change in Iran, a goal that President Trump has reportedly set. This strategy is considered unlikely to succeed because, historically, air power has not directly resulted in regime change in other conflicts without the accompanying involvement of ground forces. President Trump has explicitly ruled out the deployment of US troops on the ground in Iran, which presents a significant challenge to this objective.
Historical Precedent for Regime Change

Outside air power has not, on its own, directly achieved regime change in past conflicts. For such a transformation to occur, military interventions typically require the presence and engagement of armed forces on the ground to dismantle existing power structures and establish new ones. This historical pattern suggests that air campaigns, while capable of inflicting damage and disrupting capabilities, are insufficient on their own to fundamentally alter a government's hold on power or incite a successful popular uprising.
Doubts Regarding Efficacy in Iran

The prevailing view among analysts is that air strikes alone will not be successful in ousting Iran's current rulers. While the reported death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, if confirmed, would represent a significant blow, it is not seen as a guarantee of the end of the clerical rule or the influence of the Revolutionary Guards. Experts like Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies note the difficulty of changing a government or the minds of a population solely through aerial bombardment.
Lack of Ground Force Deployment

A critical factor limiting the potential success of air strikes for regime change is the absence of ground forces. President Trump has stated that he will not deploy US troops to Iran. This decision removes a key element that has historically been necessary for externally driven regime change. Without a ground component to support an uprising or directly engage with and incapacitate the ruling apparatus, the effectiveness of air power in achieving this specific political objective is significantly diminished.
Potential for Unintended Consequences

Furthermore, analysts warn of potential unintended consequences from eliminating top Iranian leaders. Such actions could lead to chaos within the nation or the emergence of an even more hardline, military-run government. This could result in a regime that is more resistant to Western engagement and potentially more oppressive to its own population, complicating the desired outcome of regime change and stability.

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Can air strikes alone achieve regime change in Iran?

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