Can Aung San Suu Kyi overcome constitutional hurdles to presidency?

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Aung San Suu Kyi Faces Significant Constitutional and Political Obstacles to the Presidency

Aung San Suu Kyi's ambition to become Myanmar's next president faces substantial constitutional barriers and potential political backlash, making her path to the highest office uncertain despite her popularity. The current military-drafted constitution explicitly disqualifies her due to her late husband's British nationality and her children's British citizenship. Furthermore, any amendment to this constitution requires a challenging 75% parliamentary majority, a threshold complicated by the military's reservation of a quarter of all seats and the dominance of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), largely comprised of former military officers, in the remaining seats. Even if parliamentary approval is secured, a subsequent referendum with majority support is necessary, a process that analysts suggest may not be completable before the 2015 general election.
Constitutional Disqualification Due to Foreign Ties

The primary obstacle to Aung San Suu Kyi's presidential aspirations is a specific clause within Myanmar's constitution, which was drafted under the former military junta. This provision bars individuals married to foreigners or whose children hold foreign citizenship from holding the presidency. Aung San Suu Kyi's late husband, Michael Aris, was a British academic, and their two sons are British citizens. This constitutional article was reportedly designed with her in mind, effectively precluding her from the top leadership role.
The Intricate Process of Constitutional Amendment

Overcoming this constitutional disqualification necessitates amending the existing framework, a process that is exceptionally complex. Any proposed amendment requires a supermajority of 75% of all parliament members for approval. This requirement is particularly challenging given that the constitution reserves 25% of parliamentary seats for the military. The remaining seats are predominantly held by the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a political entity largely composed of retired military officers, further consolidating military influence within the legislative body.
Referendum Requirements and Time Constraints

Beyond parliamentary approval, any amendment to the constitution must also be ratified through a national referendum, requiring a simple majority of votes. The tight timeframe leading up to the 2015 general election raises questions about the feasibility of completing both the parliamentary amendment process and a subsequent referendum within the available window. Some political analysts express skepticism regarding the possibility of navigating these extensive procedural hurdles before the election.
Potential Voter Backlash Over Sectarian Violence Stance

Even if the constitutional impediments are successfully navigated, Aung San Suu Kyi faces the prospect of alienating a significant portion of the electorate due to her stance on the violent sectarian rift between the Buddhist majority and the Muslim minority, particularly the Rohingya. While international human rights groups have urged her to use her influence to defend the persecuted Rohingya, she has expressed a desire not to "aggravate the situation" by taking sides. Her criticism of a policy limiting Rohingya women to two children and her suggestion to re-examine the 1982 citizenship law, which disenfranchises many Rohingya, have drawn warnings from domestic media, such as the Daily Eleven newspaper, that such actions could alienate voters and jeopardize her party's electoral prospects.

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Can Aung San Suu Kyi overcome constitutional hurdles to presidency?

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