Can Boris Johnson secure an EU divorce deal by Oct 17?

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Boris Johnson's Confidence in Securing an EU Divorce Deal by October 17 Faces Significant Parliamentary and EU Opposition

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has expressed strong confidence in reaching a Brexit divorce deal by the European Union summit on October 17, comparing Britain's negotiating position to the strength of the comic book character Hulk. However, this optimism is met with considerable parliamentary opposition, including the defection of a Conservative MP and the expulsion of 21 rebels who supported a law to delay Brexit if no deal is achieved. Furthermore, EU leaders have thus far refused to renegotiate the terms of the deal previously struck by Theresa May, which remains a central point of contention.
Parliamentary Hurdles and Party Divisions

Despite Prime Minister Johnson's assertion of "huge" progress and his personal confidence in securing an agreement by the October 17 EU summit, his government faces substantial challenges within the UK Parliament. A significant blow came with the defection of Conservative MP Sam Gyimah to the Liberal Democrats, who condemned Johnson's approach to Brexit. This move, alongside the expulsion of 21 Conservative rebels who voted for a law compelling the Prime Minister to seek an extension if no deal is agreed by the summit, has left Johnson without a parliamentary majority. These MPs, who supported the law to postpone Brexit until January, were subsequently removed from the Conservative party, highlighting deep divisions over the Prime Minister's strategy.
EU's Stance on Renegotiation

The European Union leaders have maintained a firm position regarding the renegotiation of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. Prime Minister Johnson's objective is to alter the terms previously negotiated by his predecessor, Theresa May, which have been rejected by the UK Parliament. However, EU leaders have consistently stated their refusal to reopen the existing deal. While Johnson has indicated that "very good conversation[s]" are occurring, particularly concerning the crucial issue of the Irish border, the fundamental unwillingness of the EU to renegotiate the core aspects of May's agreement presents a significant obstacle to Johnson's desired outcome.
The Backstop Issue and Potential Alternatives

A primary sticking point in the Brexit negotiations, and a key reason for parliamentary opposition to Theresa May's deal, is the "backstop" arrangement designed to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland. Brexit minister Steve Barclay has reiterated the government's stance that "the backstop needs to go." While this assertion has fuelled speculation that an alternative solution might be emerging, the specifics of any such proposal remain undefined. The "backstop" aims to ensure an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, potentially by keeping the UK indefinitely tied to EU trade regulations, a scenario many in the UK Parliament find unacceptable.
Johnson's Commitment Versus Legal Mandates

Prime Minister Johnson has repeatedly stated his unwavering commitment to leaving the European Union by the October 31 deadline, emphatically declaring that he would "under no circumstances" delay Brexit. This personal resolve directly conflicts with legislation passed by the UK Parliament. MPs have enacted a law that legally obliges the Prime Minister to request an extension of the Brexit deadline until January if he fails to secure a deal by the European Council summit. This creates a direct confrontation between the Prime Minister's stated intentions and a parliamentary mandate, raising questions about how this legal requirement will be addressed if an agreement is not reached.

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Can Boris Johnson secure an EU divorce deal by Oct 17?

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