Can carbon emissions make most ocean surface climates disappear by 2100?

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Up to 95% of Ocean Surface Climates Could Change by 2100 Without Emission Curbs

A significant portion of Earth's ocean surface climates, potentially as high as 95%, may undergo substantial changes by the end of the century if global carbon emissions are not curbed. These ocean surface climates are characterised by factors such as surface water temperature, acidity, and the concentration of aragonite, a mineral crucial for the skeletal formation of many marine organisms. The world's oceans have absorbed approximately one-third of all carbon pollution emitted since the Industrial Revolution, and with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rising at an unprecedented rate over the last three million years, concerns are mounting about the habitability of these marine environments.
Projected Changes Under Different Emission Scenarios

Researchers modelled ocean climates across three distinct periods: the early 19th century, the late 20th century, and projections for the late 21st century. Their analysis considered two primary emissions scenarios: RCP4.5, which assumes emissions peak around 2050 and then decline, and RCP8.5, representing a business-as-usual trajectory with continued emissions growth. Under the more moderate RCP4.5 scenario, it is projected that 36% of the ocean surface conditions prevalent in the 20th century could cease to exist by 2100.
The Impact of High Emissions

The more concerning "business-as-usual" scenario, RCP8.5, predicts a far more drastic outcome. In this scenario, where emissions continue to rise unabated, up to 95% of the ocean surface conditions experienced in the 20th century may disappear. This would mean that by 2100, a substantial majority of the ocean surface could be exposed to climates that are hotter, more acidic, and possess lower concentrations of vital minerals like aragonite, impacting the ability of marine life to form essential structures.
Widespread Novel Climates in the Oceans

Beyond the disappearance of existing conditions, the research indicates a significant emergence of novel climates. By the year 2100, up to 82% of the ocean surface may experience climatic conditions that have not been observed in recent historical records. These novel environments will be characterised by unprecedented combinations of temperature and chemistry, posing significant challenges for marine ecosystems.
Adaptation Challenges for Marine Species

The changing composition of ocean waters due to carbon pollution is expected to have a profound impact on all surface-dwelling species. Marine organisms will likely be forced to adapt to these new and rapidly evolving conditions. Evidence already shows that marine species have begun shifting their geographical ranges in response to warming waters, and this trend is anticipated to accelerate significantly in the coming decades, potentially leading to widespread disruption of marine communities.

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Can carbon emissions make most ocean surface climates disappear by 2100?

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