Can Jane Campion be stopped from winning Best Director despite Drive My Car?

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Jane Campion is unlikely to be stopped from winning Best Director even with Drive My Car’s acclaim
Jane Campion is predicted to win Best Director for The Power of the Dog, and the forecast indicates that Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s internationally acclaimed Drive My Car will not be enough to stop her. The case for Campion rests on the description of her directing as staggeringly precise, delivered with utmost skill, craft, and artistry, along with prior directing wins at the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice awards.
Campion’s directing is framed as near-flawless in execution
Her work on The Power of the Dog is characterised as staggeringly precise, executed with utmost skill, craft, and artistry, with “nary a step wrong” across a carefully planned film. In this portrayal, the standard for Best Director is treated as already met at an exceptional level.
Prior directing wins strengthen her Best Director standing
The prediction explicitly points to Campion having already won Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice awards for directing. With those major wins in place, the outlook presented is that her track record would not be enough to invite a derailment in this category.
Drive My Car is praised internationally, but is still not expected to be decisive
Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car is described as internationally acclaimed, but the expectation is that its impact will not extend far enough to prevent Campion from taking the Best Director award. The forecast also treats Hamaguchi’s nomination as “already a huge win,” implying limited runway to add a Best Director trophy.
The prediction is a straight match: “Should win” and “Will win” both name Campion
The same name—Jane Campion—is used for both “Should win” and “Will win” in the Best Director category. That alignment reinforces the central conclusion that, despite Drive My Car’s recognition, Campion remains the expected winner.

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Can Jane Campion be stopped from winning Best Director despite Drive My Car?

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