Can Moderna meet its 2023 Covid vaccine sales target?

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Moderna Expected to Meet Lower End of 2023 Covid Vaccine Sales Target

Industry analysts believe Moderna is positioned to achieve the lower end of its 2023 sales forecast for its Covid-19 vaccine. The company needs approximately 20 million vaccinations from the private market to reach US$2 billion in sales, a milestone considered achievable by four analysts. This outlook contrasts with Pfizer's recent downward revision of its Covid-19 vaccine sales, attributed partly to Moderna's more conservative initial projections.
Private Market Vaccination Threshold

To achieve US$2 billion in sales from the private market in 2023, Moderna requires about 20 million individuals to receive its updated Covid-19 vaccine. This figure represents a fraction of the total expected US demand, which Moderna anticipates could reach up to 100 million doses during the fall season. The company's overall 2023 Covid-19 vaccine sales forecast ranges between US$6 billion and US$8 billion, with US$2 billion to US$4 billion earmarked from the commercial sector, while the remainder is expected from existing government contracts.
Analyst Confidence Amidst Market Shifts

Four industry analysts view Moderna's target as attainable, suggesting the company's more conservative initial sales forecast differentiates it from competitors like Pfizer. While Pfizer recently reduced its Covid-19 shot sales outlook by approximately US$2 billion, analysts do not foresee a similar negative adjustment for Moderna. This confidence stems from the observation that the rollout of new vaccination campaigns, though initially slow, appears to be gaining momentum, with significant demand anticipated from individuals aged 65 and older.
Diversifying Product Pipeline

Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine is currently its sole marketed product. However, the company is actively expanding its portfolio, evidenced by a 62% increase in research and development costs to US$1.1 billion in the second quarter. These investments are directed towards developing other products, including a flu vaccine and a shot against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The RSV vaccine, slated for a US launch in 2024, demonstrated 82.4% effectiveness in older adults during a late-stage trial, positioning it to compete with recently approved vaccines from Pfizer and GSK.
Future Revenue Potential Beyond Covid-19

Beyond its Covid-19 vaccine, Moderna's broader respiratory pipeline, which encompasses mRNA-based RSV and flu vaccines, holds significant future revenue potential. Projections indicate this pipeline could generate between US$10 billion and US$12 billion in sales by 2025. A late-stage study of Moderna's updated flu vaccine formulation released in September showed it elicited a stronger immune response against all four strains of the influenza virus compared to traditional flu shots, underscoring the potential of its diversified mRNA platform.

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Can Moderna meet its 2023 Covid vaccine sales target?

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