Can Pakatan Harapan still win federal power despite redelineation changes?

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Pakatan Harapan Retains Possibility of Winning Federal Power Post-Redelineation

Pakatan Harapan (PH) can still secure federal power in the upcoming general election despite changes to electoral boundaries that favour Barisan Nasional (BN), according to PKR strategist Rafizi Ramli. PH parties may still achieve victory in constituencies with mixed-race populations through three-cornered contests involving PAS, as the Malay vote could be diluted, thereby offering PH a chance to capture a portion of these votes.
Strategic Opportunities in Mixed Constituencies

Rafizi Ramli highlighted that while acknowledging the redrawn boundaries do present advantages for BN, PH can still find avenues for success. He pointed to constituencies with diverse electorates as areas where PH can strategise. In these areas, the presence of PAS in a three-way contest for Malay votes could lead to a dilution of support for BN, creating an opening for PH to gain ground. This strategy hinges on the assumption that a portion of the Malay vote, previously a straight choice between BN and the Opposition, might be split with PAS's participation.
Lembah Pantai as a Case Study

The Lembah Pantai parliamentary constituency was cited as an example where PH believes it has a viable chance to win. PKR communications director Fahmi Fadzil detailed significant demographic shifts in Lembah Pantai following the redelineation. The constituency now includes Bukit Aman and has lost Brickfields. This redelineation added approximately 800 voters but crucially, incorporated at least 10,000 police votes. The demographic composition changed from 56% Malay, 22% Chinese, and 19% Indian to 62% Malay, 19% Chinese, and 16% Indian, representing a notable increase in the Malay voter percentage. Fahmi also raised concerns about the constitutionality of including Bukit Aman due to its geographical separation from the rest of the constituency.
Broader Impacts on Key Seats

The redelineation exercise is expected to have severe repercussions on other PH-held seats. Former Bersih 2.0 chair Maria Chin Abdullah noted that Petaling Jaya Utara MP Tony Pua will now oversee the Damansara constituency, which has an electorate exceeding 150,000 voters. Furthermore, she suggested that Sivarasa Rasiah might face challenges retaining his seat in Sg Buloh due to demographic shifts that favour a higher proportion of Malay voters in the newly defined boundaries.
Election Commission's Role and Denials

Critics and electoral watchdogs have voiced concerns that the Election Commission's (EC) recommendations for the redelineation provide an unfair advantage to the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition. However, the EC has consistently denied these allegations, maintaining the integrity of its redelineation process. Despite these denials, the perceived impact on electoral outcomes remains a significant point of contention.

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Can Pakatan Harapan still win federal power despite redelineation changes?

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