Can PAS win federal power by default in the next GE?

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PAS Could Win Federal Power By Default If Chinese Voters Stay Home

Former MCA president Tan Sri Dr Chua Soi Lek has suggested that PAS could potentially win federal power in the next general election by default, a scenario dependent on a significant decline in Chinese voter turnout or intentional spoilt votes. This possibility, he noted, is already a subject of quiet debate, with some within Pakatan Harapan (PH) acknowledging that PAS might form the government if voters do not actively support the coalition. While Chinese voters may feel disillusioned with PH and the DAP, they might still vote for the DAP out of habit.
PAS's Electoral Constraints

PAS is anticipated to face considerable difficulty in securing substantial support in Sabah and Sarawak, which collectively account for 56 parliamentary seats. Concurrently, the DAP is expected to maintain its strong performance in the 32 parliamentary seats predominantly held by Chinese voters. This leaves PAS with a realistic electoral battleground of 134 seats within the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat.
Required Success Rate for PAS

To form the federal government independently, PAS would need to achieve an exceptionally high success rate of 84 per cent across these 134 seats to secure the required 113 seats. Dr Chua considers this outcome improbable, particularly if the Chinese electorate participates in the election at expected levels.
Limited Appeal of National Leaders

Efforts by Perikatan Nasional to elevate Terengganu Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar to a national leadership figure have not yet demonstrably resonated with non-Muslim voters. Dr Chua described Ahmad Samsuri as an "unknown factor" to this demographic, indicating a lack of established national recognition beyond his current political base.
Impact of Malay-Based Alliances on Voter Turnout

The ongoing discussions regarding alliances among Malay-based parties, particularly in the lead-up to the Johor polls, amplify the critical importance of Chinese voter turnout. A diminished presence of Chinese voters in closely contested constituencies could inadvertently bolster PAS's prospects, even in the absence of broad-based national endorsement.

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Can PAS win federal power by default in the next GE?

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