Can PAS’s Malay-first strategy beat PN’s 2022 showing?

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PAS's Malay-first Strategy and its Potential to Surpass PN's 2022 Performance

PAS has announced an end to its cooperation with Bersatu, signaling a strategic shift to establish itself as the preeminent Malay-first coalition. While this move does not equate to an exit from the broader Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, PAS is inviting other Malay-centric organizations, including Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang), Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (Putra), Parti Berjasa Malaysia (Berjasa), and Parti Perikatan India Muslim Nasional (Iman), to join its envisioned "grand coalition." This initiative is underpinned by PAS's belief that Malaysian voters, particularly younger demographics, have become more politically polarized and will respond to the call for a united Malay front. The party's ambition is to present a more cohesive and dominant Malay-first bloc than PN demonstrated in the 2022 general election, despite PAS not securing any parliamentary seats in Johor or Negeri Sembilan during that election.
PAS's Strategic Realignment and Coalition Building

The recent announcement by PAS to cease cooperation with Bersatu is a calculated move to consolidate its position within the Malay political landscape. This does not, however, entail leaving the Perikatan Nasional coalition. Instead, PAS appears to be positioning itself to lead a more exclusive Malay-focused alliance, indicated by their invitation to parties like Pejuang, Putra, Berjasa, and Iman. This strategy aims to create a unified Malay political force, with PAS at its core, seeking to eclipse the electoral performance of PN in the 2022 general election. This ambition is further exemplified by PAS's efforts to reactivate the Muafakat Nasional (MN) framework and its call for Umno to rejoin it, although Umno's leadership, specifically President Zahid Hamidi, has shown reservations.
Electoral Ambitions in Southern Malaysia

Despite PAS's limited success in winning parliamentary seats in Johor and Negeri Sembilan during the 2022 general election, the party remains optimistic about its prospects in these southern states. PAS's strategy hinges on the conviction that an increasingly polarized electorate, especially among younger voters, will be receptive to its message of Malay unity and a grand Malay-first coalition. The decision to utilize the PAS party logo for the Johor elections underscores this commitment to its distinct identity and electoral approach, suggesting a belief that this strategy, rather than the broader PN banner, can lead them to electoral victories in these regions.
Leadership Dynamics and Political Polarization

The internal dynamics within Perikatan Nasional appear to be shifting, with PN chairman Samsuri Mokhtar adopting a more subdued role, ceding prominence to PAS leaders Hadi Awang and Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man. This suggests a growing influence of PAS's ideology and strategic direction within the coalition. PAS's core belief driving this strategy is the increasing polarization of Malaysian society, particularly among younger voters, who they anticipate will rally behind a unified Malay political movement. This approach is more aligned with PAS's established identity than with the broader, multi-ethnic appeal that PN might otherwise seek.
Historical Electoral Performance and Future Projections

While PAS and Bersatu made some electoral inroads in Peninsular Malaysia during the 2022 general election, PAS notably failed to secure any parliamentary seats in Johor or Negeri Sembilan. Nevertheless, PAS maintains that its distinct political style and its ambition for a grand Malay-first coalition can still achieve electoral success, even in these historically challenging states. The party's strategy is predicated on the notion that Malay voters will respond to this unified call, especially in an environment perceived as increasingly polarized, suggesting a belief that this approach can overcome past electoral limitations.

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Can PAS’s Malay-first strategy beat PN’s 2022 showing?

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