Can Perikatan Nasional’s ‘green wave’ impact Johor’s by-elections?

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Perikatan Nasional's 'Green Wave' Faces Significant Hurdles in Johor By-Elections

Political analysts express divided opinions on the potential impact of Perikatan Nasional's (PN) "green wave" on the Pulai parliamentary and Simpang Jeram state by-elections in Johor. While PN has achieved notable successes in recent state elections, its ability to penetrate constituencies with a more balanced Malay and non-Malay voter demographic, such as those in Johor, presents a considerable challenge. The outcome is further complicated by differing views on the distinct political leanings of Johor's Malay electorate compared to those in northern and east coast states.
Demographic Challenges for PN in Johor

The demographic composition of the Pulai parliamentary constituency, with 167,108 voters comprising 44.17% Malay, 40.47% Chinese, and 12.30% Indian voters, presents an immediate hurdle for PN. Similarly, the Simpang Jeram state constituency, with 28,193 voters, has a Malay majority at 53.42%, but a substantial 43.32% Chinese voter base. Given that approximately 80% of PN's winning votes in the last state election originated from the Malay community, penetrating constituencies with a near 50:50 Malay-non-Malay ratio, where non-Malay voters are considered firmly aligned with Pakatan Harapan (PH), is seen as an uphill battle. PN would need to secure a significantly higher percentage of Malay votes to compensate.
Distinctiveness of Johor's Malay Electorate

Some political observers suggest that Johor's Malay voters exhibit a more moderate disposition, less susceptible to extreme religious or racial sentiments compared to their counterparts in northern and east coast states. This distinction is partly attributed to Johor's state-sanctioned religious education system, known as Sekolah Agama Johor, and a generally cosmopolitan outlook among its Malay population. This perspective implies that the "green wave" phenomenon, which has seen significant traction in other regions, may not translate as effectively to Johor due to these unique socio-cultural factors.
Historical Performance and Analyst Predictions

In the 15th general election, the late incumbent Salahuddin Ayub secured a substantial victory in Pulai with 65,000 votes, while the PN candidate garnered approximately 20,000 votes. This historical performance suggests a strong PH advantage in the parliamentary seat. However, for the Simpang Jeram state seat, one analyst predicts a potential PN victory. This prediction is based on Simpang Jeram's geographical proximity to areas with strong PN influence, such as Pagoh and Muar, and its historical association as a former stronghold for PAS. The proximity to these areas, combined with a traditional Malay voter base in Simpang Jeram, could offer PN a more viable pathway to success in this specific constituency.

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Can Perikatan Nasional’s ‘green wave’ impact Johor’s by-elections?

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