Can Prime Minister Ishiba retain his majority in the upper house elections?

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Prime Minister Ishiba Faces Potential Loss of Upper House Majority

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's governing coalition is at risk of losing its majority in the upcoming upper house elections, with opinion polls suggesting a significant challenge to their current standing. This outcome could force Ishiba to step down, particularly as his government already operates with a minority in the lower house, a situation Japan has not experienced since World War II. The coalition requires securing 50 of the 125 seats up for election to maintain its majority.
Coalition's Seat Requirement

To retain control of the upper house, Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito must win at least 50 of the 125 seats that are contested in Sunday's election. Currently, 248 seats comprise the upper house, meaning these 125 seats represent a critical battleground for maintaining governmental stability and legislative effectiveness.
Factors Undermining Support

Several factors are contributing to the potential erosion of public support for Ishiba's government. Lingering resentment from a funding scandal within the LDP continues to affect public trust. Furthermore, the looming prospect of US tariffs, set to be imposed at 25 per cent from August if no trade deal is reached, is causing significant concern, especially for Japan's vital auto industry, which employs eight per cent of the nation's workforce. Recent weak export data has also fueled fears of a potential technical recession.
Rise of Right-Wing Populism

Amidst these challenges, the right-wing populist party Sanseito is showing signs of gaining traction. Opinion polls indicate the party could surpass its current two seats, potentially winning more in the upper house elections. Sanseito advocates for stricter immigration policies, opposes globalism and certain gender policies, and calls for a reassessment of decarbonisation efforts and vaccine programs.

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Can Prime Minister Ishiba retain his majority in the upper house elections?

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