Can the Taliban consolidate power without triggering widespread conflict?

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The Consolidation of Taliban Power Remains Uncertain Amidst Ongoing Conflict and Warnings of Civil War

The ability of the Taliban to consolidate power in Afghanistan without triggering widespread conflict is currently uncertain. Intense fighting is ongoing in the Panjshir Valley, the last remaining province resisting Taliban control. Both the Taliban and the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan claim to have the advantage, but neither has provided definitive proof. The situation has led to warnings from US General Mark Milley that conditions are likely to develop into a "civil war" if the Taliban cannot effectively establish governance.
Conflict Intensifies in Panjshir Valley

The Panjshir Valley is the focal point of current military activity, with both the Taliban and opposition forces engaged in fierce battles for its control. Taliban spokesman Bilal Karimi stated that they had taken four of the province's seven districts, advancing towards the provincial centre. Conversely, the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan claims to have surrounded Taliban forces and that the latter had abandoned vehicles and equipment. An Italian medical aid organization, Emergency, reported that Taliban forces had advanced further into Panjshir, reaching Anabah, and that many residents have fled the area.
Warnings of Future Instability and Terrorism

US General Mark Milley has expressed significant concern regarding the potential for future instability if the Taliban fails to consolidate power. He indicated that the conditions are likely to lead to a "civil war." Furthermore, Milley warned that a failure to establish governance could result in the "reconstitution of Al Qaeda or a growth of ISIS or other myriad of terrorist groups" within the next three years. This suggests a precarious security landscape for the region and beyond.
Domestic and International Responses Indicate Challenges

The path to consolidating power for the Taliban is also marked by domestic challenges and conditional international engagement. In Kabul, Taliban fighters dispersed a demonstration by women demanding their rights to education and jobs, reportedly using forceful measures. The announcement of a new Taliban government has been postponed to the following week, though a Taliban source indicated the new administration would include all Afghan factions. Internationally, Western powers are prepared to provide humanitarian aid but have stated that formal recognition and economic assistance will be contingent on the Taliban's actions regarding human rights. A UN-convened international aid conference is scheduled for September 13 to address the potential humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan.

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Can the Taliban consolidate power without triggering widespread conflict?

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