Could the 2026-2027 El Nino rival extreme past events like 1997-1998?

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The 2026-2027 El Nino Could Rival Past Extreme Events

The likelihood of the 2026-2027 El Nino reaching a 'very strong' or 'Super El Nino' category between October and December is over 90 per cent, with forecasts suggesting its impact could match or exceed previous extreme episodes such as those in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. This projection is based on a significant upward trend in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) and sea surface temperatures exceeding the climatological average by more than 1.8 degrees Celsius. The event is also expected to coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), potentially intensifying drier conditions across Southeast Asia, including Malaysia.
Likelihood of a Very Strong El Nino Event

Current climate model forecasts indicate a high probability, exceeding 90 per cent, that El Nino will reach a very strong category between October and December 2026. This assessment is supported by observations of a notable increase in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index since mid-year and sea surface temperatures that are significantly above average. International climate models have consistently pointed towards this strengthening trend, suggesting a peak towards the end of 2026.
Potential for Extreme Impact

The 2026-2027 El Nino event shows potential to be among the most extreme on record, with its effects possibly equalling or surpassing those of the very strong episodes in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. During the 1997-1998 El Nino, a peak temperature of 40.1 degrees Celsius was recorded in Perlis, while the 2015-2016 event saw a high of 39.3 degrees Celsius in Pahang. These past occurrences were characterised by hotter and drier conditions, with reduced rainfall towards the end of the Northeast Monsoon and during inter-monsoon periods from February to May.
Intensified Hot and Dry Conditions

The anticipated increase in temperatures for the upcoming El Nino is expected to be more pronounced from February to May of the following year. This intensification is likely due to the concurrent occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). While El Nino reduces moisture from the Pacific Ocean, a positive IOD diminishes moisture from the Indian Ocean. This dual reduction is projected to lead to hotter, drier weather and prolonged dry spells across the southern ASEAN region, including Malaysia.
Combined Impact of El Nino and Positive IOD

A positive IOD phase typically involves cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean compared to the western Indian Ocean, which consequently reduces cloud formation and rainfall over areas like Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia. When this occurs alongside El Nino, the combined effect significantly amplifies the likelihood of reduced rainfall and hotter conditions. The Malaysian Meteorological Department continues to monitor these phenomena closely, along with regional forest fire risks.

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Could the 2026-2027 El Nino rival extreme past events like 1997-1998?

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