Could the expanded MH370 search be a futile effort?

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Expanded MH370 Search Could Be Futile, Expert Argues

An aviation expert has suggested that extending the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 beyond its current focus in the southern Indian Ocean could prove to be a futile endeavour. This perspective emerges following a joint announcement by the transport ministers of Malaysia, Australia, and China that they would consider doubling the search area if the aircraft remains undiscovered within the existing zone. The expert, Jason Middleton, a professor based in Sydney, argues that once the areas with the highest probability of containing wreckage have been thoroughly examined, increasing the search area yields diminishing returns.
Diminishing Returns in Expanded Search Area

Professor Middleton indicated that after the highest priority areas have been searched, expanding the search zone significantly offers limited benefits. He expressed difficulty in justifying a decision to double the search area, which would expand it to 120,000 square kilometres, if no trace of the aircraft is found in the initial phase. This proposed expansion is intended to cover the entire highest probability area identified by expert analysis.
Questioning Resource Allocation

The potential cost for this extended search has been estimated at A$50 million (RM141.5 million), to be shared by Malaysia and Australia. Middleton suggested that these funds might be better allocated towards improving future aviation safety outcomes rather than continuing an extensive search for the missing aircraft. He characterized the effort as akin to "mowing the lawn" in the ocean without a guaranteed outcome.
Concerns Over Data and Politicization

Middleton also raised concerns about the reliance on satellite data analysis provided by the firm Inmarsat, which he described as untestable due to a lack of access to the company's proprietary information. He stated that if errors were made in Inmarsat's calculations, which form the basis of the current search area, there would be no way to replicate or verify them. Furthermore, he claimed the incident has been highly politicized from the outset, citing a perceived slowness in the Malaysian government's release of information. MH370 was officially declared an aviation accident on January 29, with all passengers and crew presumed dead, though no wreckage has been recovered since its disappearance on March 8 last year.

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Could the expanded MH370 search be a futile effort?

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