How are jihadist groups expanding their influence beyond rural Sahel areas?

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Jihadist Groups Expanding Influence Beyond Rural Sahel Areas Through Strategic Tactics and Exploitation of Governance Gaps

Jihadist groups in the Sahel are extending their influence beyond traditional rural strongholds by increasingly challenging state control in these areas and launching large-scale attacks in urban centers, including the capitals of Niger and Mali. This expansion is facilitated by their ability to operate across vast territories, recruit from marginalized communities, and exploit existing social tensions and governance deficits. The area affected by jihadist attacks in the Sahel has doubled since 2020, indicating a significant and growing territorial reach.
Exploitation of Governance Deficits and Tax Collection

In regions like Mali, groups such as the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) have imposed blockades on towns like Nioro du Sahel and Farabougou, effectively controlling movement and dictating local rules. These groups often collect taxes, typically around 10% of harvests or income, in exchange for protection. In some instances, local leaders have entered into agreements with these armed groups to manage tax collection, which has led to the depopulation of villages as residents flee instability.
Targeting of Urban Centers and Borderlands

Beyond rural areas, large-scale attacks have been carried out in the capitals of Niger and Mali, demonstrating an increasing capacity to strike at the heart of state power. Groups have also expanded into new territories, such as the southwestern regions of Mali near Senegal and Mauritania, and the instability is now spreading into northern Benin and Togo. In these new areas, jihadist groups are actively recruiting and conducting attacks against the army.
Exploitation of Social Tensions and Ideological Spread

Jihadist narratives often exploit social tensions, such as accusations against Fulani herder communities, by presenting themselves as protectors of the marginalized. This allows them to draw recruits and legitimacy. Furthermore, there is a noted spread of Salafist Wahhabi Islam, which has been increasingly replacing the traditional, more tolerant forms of Islam in the Sahel, partly due to its resonance online. This ideological shift contributes to the radicalization and expansion of these groups.

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How are jihadist groups expanding their influence beyond rural Sahel areas?

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