How are the Rohingya affected by the shifting power balance in Myanmar?

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The Rohingya Face Heightened Risks Amidst Shifting Power Dynamics in Myanmar

The escalating conflict in Myanmar, particularly the gains made by the Arakan Army (AA) as part of Operation 1027, has placed the Rohingya community in an increasingly precarious and vulnerable position. As the military junta's authority wanes and the AA consolidates control in Rakhine State, the Rohingya find themselves caught between collapsing regime forces and a rising ethnic armed group, facing potential collateral damage, restricted access to aid, and the risk of retaliation. This complex situation is further exacerbated by regional geopolitical interests, leaving the Rohingya without a clear advocate and facing continued existential threats.
AA Control in Rohingya Territories Creates New Vulnerabilities

The Arakan Army's expansion into territories historically inhabited by Rohingya communities, including areas like Maungdaw, presents a significant shift in their lived reality. With the AA acting as a de facto governing authority, there is a substantial risk of imposed movement restrictions, dictation of humanitarian access, and the potential use of Rohingya villages as buffer zones in ongoing conflict. These developments could lead to increased displacement and deprivation of essential aid, with abuses potentially going unrecorded due to communication blackouts and the absence of international monitors.
Shifting Alliances Introduce Risk of Retaliation

Recent developments have introduced an additional layer of danger for the Rohingya, with the emergence of alliances between the junta and certain Rohingya armed factions, such as the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO). If the Arakan Army perceives any alignment between Rohingya groups and its adversaries, there is a heightened risk of retaliation against Rohingya civilians. This dynamic could transform the Rohingya from passive victims into perceived threats, a perilous situation in a conflict where military logic often supersedes humanitarian concerns.
Geopolitical Interests Complicate the Rohingya's Plight

The ascendance of the Arakan Army in Rakhine State carries significant implications for regional stability, drawing the attention of neighbouring countries with vested interests. Bangladesh, already hosting a large Rohingya refugee population, faces the prospect of a new influx should fighting intensify. China, with its strategic energy corridors and interests in the Bay of Bengal, is closely observing the situation. India, too, remains wary of potential instability spilling into its northeastern regions. Amidst these broader geopolitical calculations, the Rohingya community remains vulnerable, lacking a state to champion their cause.
International Action Urgently Needed to Secure Rohingya Rights

The ongoing power shifts in Myanmar underscore the fragility of minority communities and highlight the urgent need for international intervention to protect the Rohingya. Unless external actors, including Asean, actively pressure the Arakan Army to publicly commit to safeguarding the rights of all communities under its control, the Rohingya will continue to face severe existential threats. Protecting the Rohingya is framed not only as a moral imperative but also as a strategic necessity for maintaining regional order, as unchecked escalation risks widespread instability and maritime insecurity.

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How are the Rohingya affected by the shifting power balance in Myanmar?

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