How did straight fights in Johor shift votes towards BN?

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Straight Fights in Johor Favoured Barisan Nasional Through Strategic Vote Transfers

The shift towards straight fights in the recent Johor state election significantly influenced vote transfers, ultimately benefiting Barisan Nasional (BN). This electoral dynamic allowed BN to gain an advantage in numerous constituencies where previous contests had involved multiple parties. In contrast, Pakatan Harapan (PH) experienced a disappointing outcome, securing only eight out of the 56 contested state seats.
Understanding Electoral Contest Formats

In Malaysian elections, a "straight fight" refers to a contest where only two candidates or coalitions vie for a single seat. This contrasts with a "three-cornered contest" (or multi-cornered contest), which involves three or more candidates or coalitions competing for the same seat. The presence of multiple contenders often leads to vote splitting among opposition parties, potentially allowing a candidate with a smaller but more consolidated base to win with a plurality of votes, even if they don't secure a majority of the total votes cast.
Mechanics of Vote Transfer in Straight Fights

When an election shifts from a multi-cornered contest to a straight fight, the electoral dynamics can change considerably. In a three-cornered contest, voters who might typically support opposition parties may find their preferred choice is unlikely to win, leading them to cast a vote for a less preferred but more viable option. However, in a straight fight, the choice is often more binary. Voters who previously supported smaller parties or independent candidates in a multi-cornered race may then transfer their support to one of the two main contenders, based on perceived alignment or strategic voting to prevent a specific outcome.
Impact on Barisan Nasional's Performance

The analysis suggests that in the Johor election, the move to straight fights facilitated a more direct transfer of votes that ultimately favoured BN. This occurred because voters, faced with a clearer choice between the main contenders, may have consolidated their support in ways that benefited BN. In seats previously decided by three-cornered contests, where opposition votes might have been divided, the simplification to a straight fight likely allowed for a more concentrated flow of votes towards BN, thereby enhancing its electoral advantage and contributing to its decisive victory with a two-thirds majority.

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How did straight fights in Johor shift votes towards BN?

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