How has IS shifted tactics since the collapse of its caliphate?

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Islamic State's Tactical Evolution Post-Caliphate Collapse

Since the collapse of its territorial caliphate, Islamic State (IS) has fundamentally shifted its operational tactics, moving from a centralised governing structure to a more clandestine, decentralised network. Once based in major cities like Raqqa and Mosul, the group has retreated into the remote hinterlands of Syria and Iraq. Its fighters now operate in scattered, autonomous cells, with a clandestine leadership and an overall size that remains difficult to ascertain, though the UN estimates approximately 10,000 fighters in IS heartlands. This new strategy involves operating underground with sleeper cells that execute hit-and-run attacks, a stark contrast to its former territorial control.
Dispersal and Decentralisation of Fighters

Following the loss of its territorial strongholds, IS fighters have dispersed, with many foreign combatants fleeing Iraq to countries such as Afghanistan, Syria, and Pakistan. A significant portion of these individuals have joined the Islamic State’s Khorasan branch (ISIS-K), which is actively operating along Iran's borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The leader of the Afghan branch, 29-year-old Sanaullah Ghafari, has been instrumental in transforming ISIS-K into a formidable force capable of conducting operations far from its Afghan bases.
Expansion of African Operations

Approximately half of IS’s global branches are now engaged in insurgencies across Africa, with indications of potential further expansion. In Uganda, militants affiliated with IS, specifically the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), have carried out numerous attacks. These operations have largely shifted to the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo, where the group has also conducted multiple assaults. Additionally, several other groups in West Africa and across the Sahel region have pledged allegiance to IS, with affiliates controlling substantial rural areas in Mali, Niger, northern Burkina Faso, and extending into North Africa.
Shift to Hit-and-Run and Lone Wolf Attacks

The movement has effectively gone underground, employing sleeper cells to launch hit-and-run attacks. This tactical shift also encompasses the encouragement of "lone wolf" attacks, with IS media branches circulating calls for such actions in regions like America and Europe. This strategy is exemplified by recent incidents, including a New Year's Day truck attack in New Orleans where the perpetrator flew an IS flag and was reportedly inspired by the group, and a Syrian man suspected in a stabbing in Austria who was believed to be radicalised online and an IS follower.

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How has IS shifted tactics since the collapse of its caliphate?

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