How long could full US sanctions relief for Iran realistically take?

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Full US Sanctions Relief for Iran Could Take Years Due to Complexities

The complete removal of US sanctions on Iran faces significant legal, political, and commercial hurdles that could extend the process for years. While a temporary general license allows for specific oil and petrochemical transactions through August 21, dismantling the extensive sanctions regime, which spans over four decades, involves intricate legal frameworks and potential congressional opposition. Companies, historically cautious due to prolonged restrictions, may also delay significant commitments, awaiting greater political and economic stability in Iran.
Legal and Political Frameworks Pose Significant Challenges

The sanctions against Iran are not solely based on executive orders, but also include measures mandated by Congress, complicating their removal. While the President can rescind executive orders, congressional sanctions require legislative action, a process that has already encountered skepticism from lawmakers. Furthermore, any comprehensive lifting of sanctions could expose the administration to legal complexities and political risks, akin to peeling back an onion, as described by experts.
Delisting Entities and International Coordination Are Time-Consuming

The process of delisting thousands of entities designated under sanctions by the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is estimated to take at least a year. This is in addition to the need for close coordination with international bodies like the United Nations and other countries that have imposed their own sanctions, such as the EU and Britain. Addressing these layered sanctions requires careful navigation of both domestic and international legal landscapes.
Commercial and Reputational Risks May Deter Companies

Even if sanctions are formally lifted, companies may hesitate to engage significantly with Iran due to lingering legal and reputational risks. Decades of restrictions have made businesses wary, and the potential for lawsuits from victims of attacks under acts like the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act could deter investment. Consequently, substantial multi-billion dollar commitments are unlikely until Iran's political landscape is perceived as more cemented and stable.

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How long could full US sanctions relief for Iran realistically take?

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