How many Chinese jobs are at risk from US tariffs?

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Millions of Chinese Jobs Remain at Risk Due to US Tariffs

Following recent de-escalation in the US-China trade war, estimates suggest that millions of jobs in China remain vulnerable to the impact of existing US tariffs. While the reduction in tariffs has averted a worst-case scenario of mass layoffs, current tariff levels continue to pose a significant threat to employment and economic growth. The unpredictability of US trade policy further exacerbates this risk, making it difficult for businesses in export-oriented sectors to plan for the future.
Job Loss Estimates Have Decreased But Remain Significant

Prior to the recent tariff reductions, economists had projected substantial job losses. Lu Zhe, chief economist at Soochow Securities, now estimates that the number of jobs at risk has fallen to below 1 million, a considerable decrease from earlier projections of 1.5 to 6.9 million. However, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis, maintains that current tariff levels could still lead to between 4 to 6 million layoffs. She further indicated that an additional 20 per cent reduction in tariffs could potentially result in the loss of 1.5 to 2.5 million jobs.
Existing Tariffs Continue to Burden Businesses

Even after the recent trade talks, China faces challenging US tariffs of 30 per cent on top of pre-existing duties. This level makes it difficult for businesses to operate profitably, as noted by a policy adviser who stated that conducting business at such a rate is challenging and will eventually burden China's economic development. The persistent high tariffs are a concern for companies, particularly in labour-intensive industries such as furniture and toys, which had already been struggling with bankruptcies.
Unpredictability of US Policy Creates Instability

A major impediment to job creation and business investment in China is the perceived unpredictability of US tariff policies. This uncertainty leads exporters to remain cautious, as exemplified by individuals like Li Qiang, who lost his job at an intermediary export company. His company ceased operations after losing US orders and facing increased competition in other markets. The volatile nature of US trade decisions makes employment in export-related industries inherently unstable, discouraging individuals from pursuing careers in this sector.
Government Interventions Aim to Mitigate Job Losses

In response to the threat of manufacturing job losses, Chinese authorities are reportedly increasing state investment in labour-absorbing public projects and utilising the central bank to channel financial resources towards job creation initiatives. Measures such as the People's Bank of China's introduction of a tool to provide affordable funds for sectors like elderly care are part of broader stimulus efforts. Government advisers suggest that increased public investment will be the primary driver of employment, as corporate investment enthusiasm has yet to fully recover.

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How many Chinese jobs are at risk from US tariffs?

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