How many jobs are expected to be lost in France this year?

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Nearly One Million Jobs Are Projected to Be Lost in France This Year

The French economy is anticipated to experience a significant downturn this year, with projections indicating the loss of nearly one million jobs. This contraction is a direct consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, which has severely impacted economic activity. The unemployment rate is also expected to rise considerably, potentially reaching a new record.
Economic Contraction and Job Losses

The Bank of France forecasts that the French economy will contract by 10.3 per cent in the current year. This severe downturn is expected to lead to a substantial loss of employment, with nearly one million jobs likely to be shed. The full impact on the labour market may extend into the first half of next year, as unemployment is projected to climb to a record high of 11.8 per cent.
Gradual Recovery Forecast

Despite the immediate challenges, a recovery is anticipated in the subsequent years. The economy is projected to grow by 6.9 per cent in 2021 and a further 3.9 per cent in 2022. However, this recovery path suggests that the economy will take approximately two years to return to pre-crisis levels, underscoring the depth of the current recession.
Impact of Potential Second Wave

The outlook for the French economy remains subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly concerning the potential for a second wave of coronavirus infections. Should such a scenario materialise, the economic downturn this year could be much more severe, potentially reaching a 16 per cent contraction. This would also dampen the recovery prospects for 2021 and 2022, with growth forecasts adjusted downwards to 6 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.
Current Economic Activity Levels

As of the end of May, economic activity in France was still operating at a level 17 per cent below normal. While this represents an improvement from the 32 per cent reduction observed during the initial two weeks of strict lockdown measures implemented in mid-March, it indicates that a substantial portion of the economy remains subdued. Business surveys suggest a partial return to normalcy, with activity expected to reach less than 12 per cent below normal levels in June. The second quarter of the year is estimated to have seen a contraction of 15 per cent compared to the previous quarter, which itself experienced a 5.3 per cent slump.

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