How might Iran’s threats or blocking affect the resumption of Gulf oil flows?

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Iran’s threats or blocking could delay the return to normal Gulf oil flows
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible only via routes they designate, and that they would take action against vessels that do not comply. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that if Iran threatens or blocks ships in the strait, it would create a problem. After the reported attack near Oman, oil prices edged up by about 1%, and analysts said the incident revived concerns about how long it could take for Gulf oil flows to resume to normal levels.
Iran-designated routes and potential action against non-compliant vessels
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards stated that safe passage through the strait would only be possible through routes designated by Iran. They also indicated they would take action against vessels that fail to comply with those routes.
US warning links potential disruption in the strait to wider supply concerns
Marco Rubio said that if Iran threatens or blocks ships in the strait, “then we’re going to have a problem,” reflecting concern about disruptions to ship movements. His remarks came as he toured the Gulf during the same week as the incident near Oman.
Market reaction and renewed worries about the timeline for normal flows
Oil prices rose by about 1% following the incident. Analysts tied that move to renewed concerns over how long it could take for Gulf oil flows to return to normal levels after disruption.
Ongoing maritime instability adds to uncertainty for shipping through the Gulf
The UKMTO said hundreds of ships have been stranded in the Gulf since the Iran war began at the end of February, with the UN’s International Maritime Organization assisting ships to escape. In that context, any threat or blocking by Iran would likely add further uncertainty to when regular tanker and cargo traffic can restart smoothly through the Strait of Hormuz.

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How might Iran’s threats or blocking affect the resumption of Gulf oil flows?

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