How might the Malay vote be divided among competing political coalitions?

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The Malay Vote's Potential Division in a Multi-Cornered Electoral Landscape

In a general election featuring multiple political coalitions, the Malay vote is likely to be fragmented, with Umno potentially benefiting the most from such divisions, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) could face a significant challenge in retaining its support. This scenario arises from the competition for the same voter base among Malay-centric parties.
Umno's Potential Advantage in Fragmented Fights

Political analysts suggest that Umno, with its established electoral machinery, could emerge as a primary beneficiary in contests with numerous participants. This is attributed to the possibility of its Malay votes being less diluted compared to other coalitions. Senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, Oh Ei Sun, indicated that Umno would likely gain the most, followed by a PAS-Bersatu coalition, with PH benefiting the least. This suggests a strategic advantage for Umno in a scenario where Malay votes are split across multiple parties.
Competition Between Umno-BN and Perikatan Nasional

The potential for competition between Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) and the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, which includes PAS and Bersatu, could lead to a detrimental split of the Malay vote. Geostrategist Professor Azmi Hassan from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia posits that if these two entities do not unite, they would inadvertently harm each other's electoral prospects more than they would challenge PH. This is because both would be vying for the same segment of Malay voters, a dynamic that could inadvertently bolster PH's position, particularly among non-Malay voters.
Historical Vote Canvassing by PAS

Past electoral performance indicates that PAS has been successful in drawing a significant portion of Malay votes away from Umno and BN. Political analyst Hoo Ke Ping highlighted that in previous elections, PAS managed to secure between 10 to 30 per cent of Malay votes from Umno and BN in individual seats they contested. This historical trend underscores the sensitivity of the Malay vote to competition from religiously oriented parties and suggests that a failure for Malay parties to consolidate their support could be disadvantageous.
Prospects of Malay-Centric Alliances

The idea of Malay parties consolidating their support is further reinforced by the perspective of an Umno insider. This source suggested that a collaboration between Umno and PAS, potentially through an alliance like Muafakat Nasional, could lead to a substantial increase in their combined seat victories, possibly by at least 30 seats. This viewpoint implies that a united front among Malay-centric parties could present a more formidable challenge and mitigate the risks associated with vote fragmentation.

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How might the Malay vote be divided among competing political coalitions?

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