How much did China miss its previous carbon intensity target by?

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China Missed Its Previous Carbon Intensity Target by Six Percentage Points

During the five-year plan that concluded last year, China's carbon intensity reduction was 12 percent, falling short of its 18 percent target. This shortfall means the country missed its previous goal by six percentage points. The new five-year plan, released recently, aims to set China's carbon intensity reduction programme back on track by targeting a 17 percent decrease between 2026 and 2030.
Previous Carbon Intensity Reduction

The five-year plan ending last year set a goal for China to reduce its carbon intensity by 18 percent. However, the actual reduction achieved was 12 percent, indicating a significant miss of the stated objective. This underperformance highlights the challenges China faced in meeting its decarbonisation goals during that period.
New Decarbonisation Plan Targets

The latest five-year plan, which commenced this year, outlines a new carbon intensity reduction target of 17 percent from 2026 to 2030. This plan also includes objectives to peak coal consumption and replace 30 million metric tonnes of coal annually with renewable energy sources. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) indicated that in 2026, China plans to cut its carbon intensity by approximately 3.8 percent.
Expert Assessments of Targets

Analysts have expressed concerns regarding the ambition of China's decarbonisation goals. Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) described the new carbon intensity target as "alarmingly lax," suggesting it could permit a 3 percent to 6 percent increase in emissions over the next five years, factoring in China's economic growth projections. Myllyvirta also noted that if China maintained stable or declining emissions, as observed in the past two years, it would imply carbon intensity reductions exceeding 20 percent by 2030.

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How much did China miss its previous carbon intensity target by?

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