How realistic is the initial 42 million LRT ridership forecast?

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The Initial 42 Million LRT Ridership Forecast Was Questioned for Realism

The initial forecast of 42 million annual passengers for the Bayan Lepas LRT Line, which equated to 115,000 passengers per day, has faced significant scrutiny regarding its realism. This projection was made by the SRS Consortium, the winning bidder for Penang's transport master plan, and was initially defended by the Chief Minister. However, this figure was later drastically reduced, raising concerns about the transparency and feasibility of the project's planning.
Ridership Projections Underwent Significant Revisions

The initial target ridership of 42 million passengers for the first year of operation was later revised multiple times. During the Public Inspection period in 2019, the official website presented a lower forecast of 81,000 riders per day, translating to 29.565 million annually. Subsequently, after the public inspection concluded, the forecast was again substantially lowered to 7 million passengers for the year 2027. This fluctuation in projected numbers, occurring within the same year, has led to questions about the basis of these figures.
Financial Viability Was Tied to Ambitious Growth

The financial viability of the Bayan Lepas LRT was, at one point, linked to the population growth of three proposed reclaimed islands, which were projected to house 400,000 residents by 2038. This ambitious population target was considered necessary to support the earlier ridership projections, particularly the 29.565 million annual figure, which required a total catchment population of 600,000. The initial forecast also predicted that the LRT operations would only break even in its eighth year.
Mode Share Targets Influenced Initial Forecasts

An engineer representing the SRS Consortium explained that the original 42 million ridership target was based on a 40% mode share objective. This meant that 40% of commuters in the relevant corridor were expected to switch to public transport. However, this mode share target was later relaxed, leading to a revised and lower ridership forecast. The engineer indicated that this shift in target from a statewide application to a more localized corridor approach contributed to the significant reduction in projected numbers.

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How realistic is the initial 42 million LRT ridership forecast?

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