Is PAS still likely to stay in government after the next election?

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PAS is unlikely to remain in government after the next general election.

PAS faces a significant risk of losing its state strongholds of Kelantan and Terengganu, and potentially both, in the upcoming general election. Should this prognosis materialise, the party is likely to seek new leadership. This outlook is shaped by the evolving political dynamics between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), where PAS is a component.
Historical Precedent Suggests a Pattern of Exclusion

PAS's current predicament echoes its experience in 1978. Fifty years ago, the party joined BN to consolidate Malay power, a move that initially yielded a shared electoral victory in 1974. However, this alliance eventually fractured, leading to PAS's expulsion from Kelantan by Umno and its own splinter party, Berjasa. This historical trajectory suggests a recurring pattern where PAS collaborates with larger Malay-based coalitions, only to be marginalized once its strategic utility diminishes.
Declining Electoral Performance and Shifting Alliances

The political landscape has shifted considerably since the formation of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government in February 2020. Initial aspirations of a new super-Malay coalition, with PAS being courted by both Umno and Bersatu, have not materialised. The political collaborations, once masked by a semblance of unity, have dissolved, as evidenced by the lack of cooperation discussions for the Johor elections, following similar patterns observed in the Sabah and Melaka state elections. This breakdown in alliances indicates a weakening position for PN, and by extension, PAS, within the broader federal government structure.
The Unstable Nature of Coalition Governments

In Malaysia's political system, the formation of a federal government often involves complex coalition negotiations. Even if a single party does not secure a majority, it can still participate in government through alliances. However, the current political climate suggests a trajectory where one coalition, BN, is perceived to be ascending, while PN faces a potential decline. This dynamic raises questions about PAS's continued role in government, especially if its coalition partner, Bersatu, experiences significant electoral setbacks.

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Is PAS still likely to stay in government after the next election?

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