Is Sudan repeating its past mistakes by relying on new militias?

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Sudan Risks Repeating Past Mistakes by Relying on New Militias

The Sudanese army is currently relying on a coalition of militias to fight its battles, a strategy that mirrors past instances of "outsourcing war to paramilitaries." This approach has led to widespread concern among civilians and analysts that the nation is poised to repeat the cycle of militia reliance and subsequent conflict that has plagued its history. The current situation echoes the events of three years prior, when the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), once integrated into the state apparatus, turned against the army, initiating a conflict that has resulted in an estimated 200,000 fatalities.
New Militias Hold Significant Military Power

In areas under army control, nominally led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, several armed groups have expanded their ranks significantly since the outbreak of war in April 2023. Among the most potent are the Joint Forces, comprising former Darfuri rebel militias; the Sudan Shield Forces, composed of defectors from the RSF; and the Baraa ibn Malek Brigade, identified as an Iran-linked Islamist force. These factions are equipped with their own artillery, anti-aircraft missiles, and advanced drones, posing a formidable, albeit potentially volatile, military presence.
Presence of Armed Groups Breeds Civilian Fear

Despite official prohibitions, these armed groups openly display their weaponry in markets and on the streets, instilling a palpable sense of fear among the populace. While the army has reportedly asked these groups to disband, they continue to operate freely. Attempts by the military to integrate or control these forces, particularly the Baraa ibn Malek Brigade, which is seen as a remnant of the former regime's Islamist wing, have shown little sign of success, with no clear indications of imminent integration into the formal army structure.
Historical Precedents of Militia Outsourcing and Betrayal

Sudan's history is replete with examples of the military leveraging militias, most notably the RSF. In the 2000s, former president Omar al-Bashir armed the Janjaweed to quell a rebellion in Darfur, later formalizing them into the RSF in 2013, a move some argue was intended to protect his regime and contributed to over 300,000 deaths. The RSF commander, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as "Hemeti," famously switched allegiance during the 2018-19 uprising, helping to oust Bashir and becoming a key ally to Burhan. However, their eventual power struggle erupted into the current "war of atrocities," highlighting the inherent instability of such alliances.
Concerns Over Future Militia Rebellions

The current reliance on these new militias has fueled anxieties that a similar pattern of betrayal and internal conflict is inevitable. Analysts and diplomats describe these groups as mercenaries driven by self-interest, suggesting they could turn against the army if their perceived benefits diminish. The Joint Forces, in particular, have been referred to as a potential "next Hemeti." The breakdown of negotiations over the integration of the RSF itself was a significant factor leading to the current war, underscoring the persistent challenge of managing and integrating these powerful paramilitary forces.

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Is Sudan repeating its past mistakes by relying on new militias?

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