US-China trade war: Will the mini-deal truly de-escalate tensions?

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The Mini-Deal's Impact on US-China Trade Tensions Remains Uncertain

The recently announced mini-trade deal between the United States and China has led to some de-escalation of trade tensions, including the cancellation of new tariffs and a reduction in existing ones. However, a comprehensive resolution to the underlying trade disputes has not been achieved. China's trade surplus with the United States saw a decrease in 2019, narrowing to approximately US$295.8 billion, an 8.5% reduction from the US$323.3 billion recorded in the previous year. This development occurred as both nations engaged in retaliatory tariff measures that have impacted the global economy.
Trade Surplus Reduction and Purchase Commitments

China's trade surplus with the US narrowed significantly in 2019, reaching an estimated US$295.8 billion. This represented an 8.5% decrease compared to the US$323.3 billion surplus recorded in 2018. The surplus in December 2019 alone was around US$23.2 billion. In conjunction with this, Washington officials stated that the mini-trade deal includes a commitment from Beijing to purchase an additional US$200 billion worth of American products over a two-year period. While China has yet to publicly confirm these figures, the agreement aims to address a key point of contention for the US.
Tariff Adjustments and Remaining Measures

In response to the agreement, the Trump administration has called off new tariffs that were scheduled to take effect on Chinese goods such as electronics. Furthermore, tariffs imposed on September 1 on US$120 billion worth of Chinese products have been halved. Despite these adjustments, the United States continues to maintain 25% tariffs on approximately US$250 billion of Chinese imports. This indicates that a substantial portion of the trade landscape remains subject to existing tariffs.
Signs of De-escalation Beyond Tariffs

Beyond tariff adjustments, other measures signal a de-escalation of tensions. Notably, Washington removed the "currency manipulator" label it had imposed on China during the summer. Customs administration spokesman Zou Zhiwu indicated that Chinese imports from the US, including soybeans and pork, have seen an increase since November and December. He also stated that these increased imports from the US would not affect China's purchasing from other nations and that efforts to diversify markets have proven effective, with exports to non-US markets rising.

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US-China trade war: Will the mini-deal truly de-escalate tensions?

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