What are the top office supply and demand trends in Greater China?

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Greater China's Premium Office Market Shows Resilience Amidst Shifting Dynamics

The Greater China premium office market, as of the second quarter of 2025, recorded a total Grade A inventory of 72.1 million square meters across 20 major cities. Net absorption for the first half of 2025 reached 0.76 million square meters, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase, indicating a sustained demand. For tenants, the market continues to offer opportunities due to favorable vacancy rates and rental levels, further enhanced by landlords adopting more flexible leasing terms. However, a peak in supply is anticipated in most mainland Chinese cities over the next two to three years, necessitating landlords to bolster their market competitiveness.
Beijing Experiences Reduced Supply and Increased Absorption

Beijing's Grade A office market saw a significant decrease in new supply, with 273,000 square meters added in 2024, a 55% reduction from 2023 and the lowest level in a decade. The first half of 2025 saw no new additions, maintaining the total stock at 13.68 million square meters. Despite this, net absorption from 2024 to the first half of 2025 surged by 51.9% year-on-year to 511,967 square meters, leading to a decrease in the overall vacancy rate to 16.87%. Rents are projected to stabilize by the end of 2025 as the market digests existing stock.
Shanghai Faces Rising Vacancy and Rental Declines Amidst New Supply Influx

Shanghai introduced approximately 1.34 million square meters of high-quality office space between 2024 and the first half of 2025, with a significant portion in emerging districts. The city's average quarterly net absorption over the past six quarters was 132,266 square meters, with professional services, retail & trade, and TMT sectors being the most active. As of the second quarter of 2025, Shanghai's vacancy rate climbed to 23.6%, and average monthly rents decreased by 8.2% year-on-year to RMB 212.6 per square meter. A substantial 2.58 million square meters of new supply is expected from the second half of 2025 to 2027, primarily in emerging business districts.
Shenzhen Grapples with Increased Vacancy and Rental Pressure from New Supply

Shenzhen added 516,000 square meters of new Grade A office supply from the first quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025, bringing its total stock to 8.60 million square meters. Net absorption in 2024 contracted by 57.9% year-on-year to 165,000 square meters. The city's overall vacancy rate rose to 27.8% by the second quarter of 2025, with average monthly rents dropping 14.1% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to RMB160.1 per square meter. Approximately 1.2 million square meters of new supply is slated for the second half of 2025, which is expected to exert downward pressure on rents.
Hong Kong's Leasing Activity Increases Despite Projected Rent Decline

Hong Kong saw over 194,000 square meters of new supply enter the market from 2024 through the first half of 2025. Average quarterly new leased area increased by 19% compared to the 2020–2023 period, reaching 84,900 square meters, with the finance sector being a primary driver of demand. Net absorption for the period was 122,000 square meters. Despite positive leasing activity, overall office rents in Hong Kong are forecast to decline by 7% to 9% for the full year 2025 due to high availability and a substantial new supply pipeline, coupled with cost-conscious occupiers.

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What are the top office supply and demand trends in Greater China?

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