What does Musk suspect is the true percentage of bots on Twitter?

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Elon Musk Suspects a Significantly Higher Bot Presence on Twitter Than Officially Stated

Elon Musk has indicated that the proportion of bots on Twitter could be substantially higher than the company's official figures, suggesting a potential discrepancy that could impact the valuation of the platform. He publicly stated that he suspects bots constitute approximately 20 per cent to 25 per cent of users, and in a more extreme scenario, conceded there is a possibility that over 90 per cent of daily active users might be automated accounts. This contrasts sharply with Twitter's internal estimates, which have consistently reported spam accounts as being "well under 5 per cent" for the past four quarters.
Discrepancy Between Musk's Suspicions and Twitter's Estimates

Musk's private comments at a conference in Miami revealed his belief that bots may comprise around 20 per cent to 25 per cent of Twitter's user base. This figure is considerably higher than the "well under 5 per cent" that Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal stated in response to ongoing criticism. Agrawal defended the company's methodology, explaining that determining spam accounts requires access to both public and private data, a process that cannot be easily replicated externally. Twitter's estimate has remained unchanged since 2013.
Potential Impact on Acquisition Price

The ongoing dispute over the prevalence of spam accounts has cast doubt on Musk's commitment to his US$44 billion acquisition of Twitter at the initially agreed-upon price. Following Musk's remarks, Twitter shares experienced a significant decline, trading below the price they were at before Musk initially disclosed his stake in the company. Musk himself suggested that a lower valuation for Twitter might be appropriate given these concerns, highlighting the fundamental importance of accurate user data for advertisers and the overall financial health of the platform.
Independent Estimates and Twitter's Policy on Automated Accounts

Independent researchers have offered estimates that fall between Musk's suspicions and Twitter's official stance, suggesting that bot profiles could range from 9 per cent to 15 per cent of the platform's total profiles. Twitter's policies permit automated, parody, and pseudonymous profiles but prohibit impersonation and spam. The company penalises accounts deemed to be deceiving or manipulating others through scams, coordinated abuse campaigns, or artificial engagement inflation. However, Musk has expressed skepticism about analyses that place spam accounts below 5 per cent, calling for tests on random user samples to identify bots.

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What does Musk suspect is the true percentage of bots on Twitter?

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