What drives the expected 20 to 30 per cent fall in arrivals?

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The novel coronavirus is driving a projected 20 to 30 per cent fall in international tourist arrivals.

The significant decline in international tourist arrivals, estimated between 20 to 30 per cent for 2020, is directly attributed to the global spread of the novel coronavirus. This unprecedented drop is expected to result in a substantial loss of revenue for the international tourism sector, with estimates ranging from US$300 billion to US$450 billion. The World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) has revised its earlier, more optimistic forecasts significantly downward as the pandemic's impact has intensified.
Impact on Global Tourism Revenue

The projected loss in international tourism receipts of US$300-450 billion represents a considerable portion of the US$1.5 trillion generated in 2019. This substantial financial shortfall underscores the severe economic consequences the pandemic is having on countries reliant on tourism. The UNWTO, a Madrid-based body, stated that tourism is among the sectors most severely affected by the global health crisis.
Revised Forecasts Amidst Pandemic Escalation

Initially, the UNWTO had predicted a 3.0-4.0 per cent growth in international tourism for the year. However, by March 6, this forecast was revised to a 1.0-3.0 per cent decline due to the escalating spread of Covid-19. The situation has since worsened, with more nations implementing stringent travel restrictions and airlines significantly cutting flights as governments worldwide attempt to contain the disease.
Risk to Millions of Jobs

Beyond the financial losses, the UNWTO secretary general, Zurab Pololikashvili, highlighted that millions of jobs within the tourism sector are at risk of being eliminated. This indicates a broader socio-economic impact, as the tourism industry is a significant employer globally, supporting livelihoods across various skill levels and regions. The current crisis is far more severe than previous global events impacting travel.

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What drives the expected 20 to 30 per cent fall in arrivals?

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