What factors suggest US economic growth is cooling?

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US Economic Growth Appears to be Cooling Towards a Long-Term Trend

US economic growth is showing signs of cooling, moving back towards a long-term trend of approximately two per cent. Forecasts for 2020 anticipate growth around this figure, indicating a deceleration from the previous year, which itself saw slower growth than 2018. This cooling trend is underscored by several persistent economic indicators, including an ongoing slump in American manufacturing and a noticeable softening in consumer spending and wage increases towards the end of 2019.
Manufacturing Sector Faces Persistent Slump

The American manufacturing sector continues to experience a downturn with no immediate signs of recovery. This prolonged slump persists despite promises of industrial revival, indicating structural challenges within the sector that are contributing to the broader economic slowdown. The lack of a clear end in sight for this manufacturing weakness suggests it will continue to be a drag on overall economic performance.
Consumer Spending and Wage Growth Show Signs of Softening

Towards the close of 2019, there was a discernible weakening in consumer spending patterns. Concurrently, the pace of increases in worker pay also moderated. This dual softening in consumer expenditure and wage growth indicates a potential dampening of demand-side pressures within the economy, further supporting the narrative of cooling growth.
Hiring Activity Reaches an Eight-Year Low

The year 2019 saw the slowest pace of hiring in eight years. This significant reduction in the rate at which employers were adding to their workforces suggests a more cautious business environment and can be interpreted as a reflection of underlying economic uncertainty. The trend in hiring activity provides a concrete measure of the cooling economic momentum.

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What factors suggest US economic growth is cooling?

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