What forecast links warming to at least 15,000 viral jump events by 2070?

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Warming Will Drive Mammals to New Habitats, Increasing Viral Jump Events

Climate change is projected to force mammals into new environments, leading to an estimated 15,000 new instances of viruses jumping between animal species by 2070. This phenomenon is driven by rising temperatures compelling animals to abandon their natural habitats and encounter other species for the first time. Researchers indicate that this process has likely already commenced and is expected to continue, even with significant reductions in carbon emissions.
Increased Mammal Encounters Due to Habitat Shifts

The fundamental mechanism behind this increased viral transmission risk is the forced migration of mammals. As global temperatures rise, species will seek out cooler regions, inevitably leading them into contact with animals they have not previously encountered. A study published in Nature modelled these movements under various global warming scenarios, revealing that new contacts between different mammal species could effectively double. This intensification of interspecies interaction creates fertile ground for viruses to cross from one host to another.
Bats Pose a Significant and Unique Threat

Among the diverse mammal populations, bats are identified as a particular concern due to their unique migratory capabilities. As the only mammals capable of sustained flight, bats can traverse vast distances, facilitating the widespread dissemination of diseases as they encounter new species. The research indicates that bats are responsible for a substantial majority of potential first encounters with other mammals, with significant hotspots anticipated in Southeast Asia. Their mobility amplifies the risk of zoonotic spillover events.
Accelerated Viral Transmission in Populated Areas

Beyond simply increasing the number of interspecies encounters, global warming is also expected to concentrate these events in more densely populated human areas. This geographical shift means that when viruses jump between species, they are more likely to do so in proximity to human populations, increasing vulnerability to disease spread. The study identifies several potential hotspots for such occurrences, including regions in Africa, South-east Asia, India, China, and parts of Europe, underscoring a direct link between climate-induced animal movement and heightened human health risks.
Unpreventable Nature and Need for Health Infrastructure

The findings suggest that the projected increase in viral jump events is largely unavoidable, even under optimistic climate change mitigation scenarios. The modelling indicated that milder warming trends, while slower, could paradoxically lead to more cross-species transmission due to animals having more time to travel and adapt to new environments. Consequently, researchers stress that the focus must shift from prevention to preparedness, advocating for the strengthening of health infrastructure to better protect both animal and human populations against emerging infectious diseases.

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What forecast links warming to at least 15,000 viral jump events by 2070?

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