What happens to Suez Canal toll revenue if Suez loses traffic?

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Egypt’s Suez Canal toll revenue could shrink if Suez loses its monopoly on Asia-Europe trade
If the Suez Canal loses its monopoly on Asia-Europe trade, Egypt’s canal toll revenue—close to $10 billion last year—could shrink as fewer ships pass through. The piece links this potential drop to the idea that alternative routes would reduce the number of vessels that need to stop in the region for fuel and repairs, which would also affect ports that benefit from Suez-linked traffic.
Egypt’s toll earnings are tied to monopoly traffic levels
The key figure is that Egypt earned close to $10 billion in canal tolls last year. The scenario described is that if Suez no longer holds monopoly status on Asia-Europe trade, the volume of traffic using the canal would be lower, putting downward pressure on toll revenue.
Fewer ships would also mean less stopover activity for regional ports
The material points to ports such as Singapore, which thrive on Strait of Malacca traffic, as potentially seeing fewer ships stopping for fuel and repairs. It also notes that Malaysian ports are not spared, implying that reduced shipping volumes connected to route shifts could reduce the demand those ports depend on.
Route shifts are framed around time and distance advantages
The discussion presents the Northern Sea Route as a potentially longer-lasting shipping lane as sea ice melts, with Shanghai-to-Rotterdam described as shorter via the Arctic than via Suez. It cites roughly 8,000 nautical miles via the Arctic versus about 11,000 nautical miles via Suez, alongside a 30 per cent shorter trip, which would make Suez traffic less attractive if the Arctic becomes more reliably passable.
The timeline for disruption is linked to when the Arctic becomes more usable
The text states that the Arctic route is not ready now due to factors such as limited port depth, few rescue services, harsh weather even in summer, and higher costs for ice-strengthened ships. It then frames the change as becoming more feasible by around 2040 or sooner, meaning any impact on Suez toll revenue would be tied to that shift in route availability.

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What happens to Suez Canal toll revenue if Suez loses traffic?

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