What impact would excluding Sabah and Sarawak have on interpreting GE15 forecasts?

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Excluding Sabah and Sarawak from GE15 Forecasts Distorts Overall Predictive Accuracy

The exclusion of Sabah and Sarawak from the Emir Research projection for the 15th general election significantly limits the interpretability of the overall forecast. While the projection offers specific predictions for Peninsular Malaysia, the omission of the East Malaysian states means the analysis does not account for a substantial bloc of parliamentary seats and a diverse electorate whose voting patterns can influence national outcomes. This omission means the forecast cannot provide a complete picture of the potential seat distribution or the final composition of Parliament, which historically has seen significant contributions from Sabah and Sarawak.
Peninsular Malaysia Projection Details

The Emir Research projection for Peninsular Malaysia anticipates a plurality for Pakatan Harapan (PH), forecasting 94 seats. This places PH ahead of Barisan Nasional (BN), which is projected to secure 46 seats, and Perikatan Nasional (PN), expected to win 24 seats. The analysis further predicts the electoral defeat of several senior leaders from BN and PN. Notably, Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is forecast to lose in Bagan Datuk, while deputy president Datuk Mohamad Hasan is expected to win in Rembau. Caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob is predicted to narrowly win his Bera seat.
Key Leaders Projected to Face Defeat

Beyond the presidential figures, the projection identifies several other prominent politicians likely to be unsuccessful in their bids. These include caretaker finance minister Datuk Seri Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz, who is projected to lose his electoral debut in Kuala Selangor. MCA president Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong is forecast to be ousted in Ayer Hitam, and MIC president Tan Sri SA Vigneswaran is predicted to lose in Sungai Siput. For PN, Datuk Seri Azmin Ali is identified as a potential casualty in Gombak, and Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin in Larut. PAS is expected to be the dominant force within PN, securing most of its seats in Kelantan and Terengganu.
Limited Scope of the Analysis

The predictive model employed by Emir Research is based on a combination of historical electoral trends, sentiment surveys, demographic analysis, and a meta-analysis of other published poll results. While these methodologies are standard in electoral forecasting, their application is inherently constrained by the geographical scope of the data. The exclusion of Sabah and Sarawak means that the unique political dynamics, historical voting patterns, and demographic compositions of these states are not factored into the overall projection. This omission is particularly relevant given the substantial number of parliamentary seats allocated to Sabah and Sarawak, which can play a decisive role in coalition building and national government formation.

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What impact would excluding Sabah and Sarawak have on interpreting GE15 forecasts?

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