What intelligence led the State Department to close 21 missions?

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Intelligence Informing State Department Mission Closures

The State Department's decision to close 21 US embassies and consulates stemmed from intelligence indicating a credible threat of al Qaeda-affiliated attacks, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, with a potential focus on the period between early August and the end of August. While the precise nature and scope of the intelligence remain undisclosed, US officials described it as serious and possessing "some specificity but not enough" to pinpoint a particular target. This lack of specific targeting, combined with the credible threat stream, prompted the dramatic precautionary measures.
Nature of the Threat and Intelligence

The intelligence suggested that al Qaeda and its affiliated organizations were planning terrorist attacks within the region and potentially beyond. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a group based in Yemen, was identified as a prominent affiliate involved in these planning efforts. US security sources indicated that the threat was aimed at Western interests broadly, a sentiment later confirmed by General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, who stated the potential attack was "unspecified."
Scope and Timing of Potential Attacks

The travel alert, issued on August 3rd, specifically warned of attacks occurring in or emanating from the Arabian Peninsula, with a focus on the period between the alert's issuance and August 31st. This timeframe, coupled with the geographical focus, informed the decision to close diplomatic missions primarily in Muslim-majority countries where such threats were deemed most likely. The alert itself was set to expire on August 31st, aligning with the period of heightened concern.
Specificity and Rationale for Closures

A US official explained that the government's dramatic reaction was due to having "some specificity but not enough" intelligence. This suggests that while there was a clear indication of planned attacks and the groups involved, the exact targets or methods were not definitively known. This ambiguity necessitated a broad precautionary approach, leading to the closure of numerous diplomatic facilities, including those in Afghanistan, Algeria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen, as well as specific consulates and facilities in Israel.

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What intelligence led the State Department to close 21 missions?

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