What is causing durian prices to fall in China despite strong import growth?

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Falling Durian Prices in China Linked to Production Surpluses and Easing Consumer Spending

Durian prices in China are experiencing downward pressure primarily due to a significant increase in supply from Southeast Asian producers following a bumper harvest, coupled with more cautious consumer spending. While demand from China remains robust in the long term, the pace of production expansion has outstripped demand growth, leading to a surplus of fruit that is driving down wholesale prices during peak seasons. This situation is exacerbated by increased supply from multiple origins and higher stock levels within China.
Bumper Harvests Lead to Oversupply

A major factor contributing to the decline in durian prices is the substantial surplus of fruit from Southeast Asian countries after a period of exceptionally good harvests. This oversupply situation means that producers are keen to offload their fruit, thereby increasing the volume available in the Chinese market. For instance, China's overall durian import volume surged to 1.07 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, a significant jump from 708,000 tonnes in the same period of the previous year.
Production Growth Outpacing Demand Expansion

Although long-term demand for durians in China remains strong, the rate at which production has expanded in key exporting nations has outpaced this demand growth. This imbalance creates downward pressure on prices, particularly during periods of peak supply. Lim Chin Khee, an advisor to the Durian Academy in Malaysia, noted that this disparity between production and demand expansion is a key reason for price softening during peak seasons.
Increased Supply from Multiple Origins and Cautious Consumer Spending

The Chinese market is now receiving increased supplies from various origins, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, contributing to higher stock levels. Thailand, a dominant exporter, supplied 81 per cent of China's durian imports in the first half of 2026, valued at US$3.79 billion. Vietnam followed with 18 per cent (US$846 million), and Malaysia saw a remarkable 342 per cent year-on-year increase in its exports, reaching US$30.26 million. Alongside this increased supply, analysts point to more cautious consumer spending in China as another factor affecting prices, suggesting that even with more choices and affordable prices, overall purchasing behaviour has become more reserved.

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What is causing durian prices to fall in China despite strong import growth?

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