What is the predicted global economic growth rate for 2021?

Question

Accepted Answer

The UN Conference on Trade and Development predicts 4.7% global economic growth for 2021.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2021 upwards to 4.7 per cent. This adjustment reflects an anticipated surge in United States consumer spending, bolstered by advancements in vaccine distribution and a substantial stimulus package. The global recovery that commenced in the third quarter of 2020 is projected to persist throughout 2021, though this growth trajectory is expected to be marked by considerable unevenness and unpredictability.
Revised Growth Forecast

UNCTAD's latest projection of 4.7 per cent represents an increase from its September forecast of 4.3 per cent. This upward revision is primarily attributed to the expected positive impact of a significant stimulus package in the United States and the progress made in distributing Covid-19 vaccines, which are anticipated to stimulate consumer activity.
Factors Driving the Recovery

The global economic recovery, which began in the latter half of 2020, is expected to continue into 2021. This momentum is supported by several factors, including preemptive actions taken by central banks to avert a financial crisis, the implementation of relief packages, a rebound in commodity prices, and the accelerated development and deployment of vaccines.
Acknowledged Uncertainties and Risks

Despite the revised positive outlook, the UNCTAD report acknowledges that the global recovery will be characterised by significant unevenness and unpredictability. These variations are influenced by epidemiological developments, policy decisions, and coordination challenges. The report also highlights a key risk to the global outlook: a premature return to austerity measures, which could hinder sustained economic progress.
Lasting Economic Consequences

The report underscores that the Covid-19 pandemic will have enduring economic consequences, necessitating ongoing government support. The pandemic caused an estimated 3.9 per cent drop in global output in the previous year, described as an "exorbitant" impact with unprecedented income destruction, particularly affecting developing nations. However, the report notes that the situation would have been more severe without swift central bank interventions and other supportive measures.

Reading history

Hide →

This history is cleared when the page is closed.

What is the predicted global economic growth rate for 2021?

Loading

Was this article helpful?

Helpful

Not helpful

Report an issue

2

0

0

Share with friends