What methodology did El Pais use to estimate deaths?

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El Pais's Investigation Included Suspected and Confirmed Covid-19 Fatalities

An investigation by El Pais newspaper estimated Spain's Covid-19 death toll to be 44,868 by incorporating regional statistics of both suspected and confirmed fatalities from the virus. This figure significantly exceeds the official government count of 28,432, which exclusively accounts for individuals who were formally diagnosed with the coronavirus. The discrepancy arises from the exclusion of suspected cases that were never tested from the official tally, a common issue in many countries due to limited testing capabilities, especially during the initial phases of the outbreak.
Counting Both Confirmed and Suspected Deaths

El Pais compiled its higher death toll by aggregating data from regional statistics that included all fatalities where the virus was either confirmed or suspected. This comprehensive approach aimed to capture a more complete picture of the pandemic's impact, acknowledging that many deaths might have been attributed to Covid-19 without formal testing. The newspaper's methodology suggests that the official figures may underestimate the true extent of the virus's reach within the population.
Comparison with National Mortality Data

The figure of 44,868 deaths arrived at by El Pais aligns closely with estimates derived from Spain's National Epidemiology Centre and the National Statistics Centre (INE). The INE, in particular, tracks excess mortality by comparing the total number of deaths across the country against historical averages. This method provides an indirect measure of pandemic-related fatalities, even when the specific cause of death is not definitively confirmed as Covid-19.
Excess Mortality Data Supports Higher Figures

In June, the INE reported an excess mortality of 43,945 deaths during the first 21 weeks of 2020 when compared to the same period in the previous year. While the INE could not definitively attribute all these additional deaths to the pandemic, the close proximity of this figure to El Pais's estimate further substantiates the argument that the official Covid-19 death toll may be a significant undercount. This excess mortality data indicates a substantial increase in overall fatalities beyond what would be expected under normal circumstances.

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What methodology did El Pais use to estimate deaths?

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