What new Russian plans involve Belarusian territory?

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Russia is Considering Operations from Belarusian Territory Against Ukraine or Nato

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that Russia is contemplating military operations originating from Belarusian territory, potentially targeting either Ukraine's northern regions or a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) country. These potential operations are being considered for directions south and north of Belarus, indicating a strategic consideration of routes and targets. Ukraine has been documenting Russia's efforts to draw Belarus more deeply into the conflict, with additional contacts between Russian officials and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko aimed at persuading him to join new aggressive operations.
Potential Operations Directed Towards Ukraine

Russia is reportedly considering plans for operations that could be directed towards the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction within Ukraine. This suggests a focus on Ukraine's northern border regions, specifically areas around Chernihiv and the capital, Kyiv. Ukraine's defence forces have been instructed to prepare response plans and strengthen defences in these northern regions in anticipation of such possibilities.
Potential Operations Against Nato Countries

In addition to targeting Ukraine, Russia is also considering plans to launch operations directly against a Nato country from Belarusian territory. Belarus shares borders with Nato members Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia to its north and west, presenting potential avenues for such actions.
Context of Belarusian Involvement

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has maintained close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and previously allowed his territory to be used for the initial stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, although Belarusian troops have not directly engaged in combat. More recently, Minsk has agreed to the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles on its soil. Zelenskiy has indicated that Ukraine possesses intelligence suggesting Russia is making preparations to involve Belarus in the conflict once again.

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What new Russian plans involve Belarusian territory?

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