What recovery rate are US airlines projecting for jet-fuel cost spikes?

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US airlines are projecting to recover about 40% to 50% of jet-fuel cost spikes, with some carriers doing less and United aiming for full recovery by year-end.

US airlines are not expecting to pass through the full rise in jet-fuel costs in the near term. Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines are projecting second-quarter recovery of about 40 per cent to 50 per cent, while Alaska Air is recovering about one-third of the increase and JetBlue Airways and Frontier Group expect to recover less than half.
Several major carriers are targeting only partial recovery
The clearest figures from the US market show that fare increases have lagged fuel costs. Deutsche Bank estimated carriers would recover only about 60 cents of every additional dollar spent on fuel, which is consistent with the 40 per cent to 50 per cent range for several large airlines.
Alaska Air is below the major-network carriers
Alaska Air said it was recovering about one-third of the increase in jet-fuel costs. That puts it below Delta, United and American, which all put second-quarter recapture at roughly 40 per cent to 50 per cent.
JetBlue and Frontier expect less than half back
JetBlue Airways and Frontier Group also expect to recover less than half of the increased fuel costs. That leaves a wide gap between higher fuel bills and ticket revenue, especially as domestic seat growth remains limited.
United has set a stronger year-end target
United CEO Scott Kirby said the airline is “on a path to recovering 100 per cent by the end of the year.” That is a longer-term target rather than a second-quarter outcome, and it stands out from the more modest recovery rates projected by other carriers.

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What recovery rate are US airlines projecting for jet-fuel cost spikes?

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