What risks does PH face by maintaining ties with BN and PAS?

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PH Faces Electoral Risks from BN's Ties with PAS

Pakatan Harapan (PH) confronts significant risks to its electoral strategy and political alliances if Barisan Nasional (BN) continues its close association with PAS while governing within the Unity Government. The primary concern is the potential erosion of strategic surprise, a critical element in election campaigns, and the weakening of crucial partnerships with Sabah and Sarawak. Furthermore, the internal political dynamics and demands of PAS could pressure BN into actions detrimental to PH's interests.
Erosion of Strategic Surprise and Opposition Insight

Maintaining a close political understanding between BN and PAS while both are part of the Unity Government would grant the opposition unparalleled access to the governing coalition's strategic thinking, campaign machinery, and electoral calculations. This transparency would diminish PH's ability to achieve strategic surprise, a key advantage in competitive elections, by allowing opponents to anticipate and counter PH's moves effectively. The inherent logic of electoral politics, focused on organisation, timing, and surprise, contrasts with the demands of governing, potentially turning a current governing partnership into an electoral liability for PH.
Weakening of Support from Sabah and Sarawak

The political landscape in Malaysia has evolved, with Sabah and Sarawak becoming indispensable pillars for forming a federal government, holding significant parliamentary strength. These East Malaysian states have a distinct political culture, historically valuing moderation, constitutional federalism, and religious harmony, with a unique understanding of multicultural coexistence. Any perception that BN is aligning more closely with PAS, particularly given PAS's ideological emphasis under Hadi Awang, risks alienating political leaders and voters in Sabah and Sarawak. Such a perception could weaken the vital partnership between PH and these two Borneo states, jeopardising PH's ability to assemble a governing majority after the 16th General Election (GE16).
PAS's Assertiveness and Demand for Dominance

The political psychology surrounding PAS suggests a pattern of asserting itself as the indispensable catalyst for its partners' electoral successes. This narrative, particularly under Hadi Awang, could lead to increasing pressure on BN to acknowledge PAS as the dominant partner, a prospect that Umno, a key component of BN, is unlikely to accept. The logical political demand stemming from this position would be for BN to distance itself entirely from PH, especially the Democratic Action Party (DAP), under the banner of Malay-Muslim unity. This demand raises constitutional and political complexities, as it risks mobilising support based on narrower ideological contestation rather than the broader realities of governing a diverse federation.

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What risks does PH face by maintaining ties with BN and PAS?

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