What role does the El Nino forecast play in Terengganu drought risk?

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El Nino Forecast as a Key Factor in Terengganu's Predicted Drought Risk

The forecast of a severe dry spell in Terengganu between 2025 and 2030 is directly linked to the anticipated impact of the El Nino phenomenon. This climatic pattern is identified as the primary driver behind the projected reduction in rainfall, potentially leading to significant water scarcity issues within the state. The National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (Nahrim) specifically cited El Nino as the cause for this impending drought, underscoring its substantial influence on regional weather systems.
El Nino's Projected Impact on Terengganu's Climate

El Nino is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon characterised by unusually warm surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts global weather patterns, and in many regions, including parts of Southeast Asia, it is typically associated with reduced rainfall and increased temperatures. The forecast suggests that Terengganu will experience these conditions between 2025 and 2030, indicating a period where the state's water resources could be significantly strained. This prediction stems from an evaluation report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which utilised a 'big data' methodology to model these climatic shifts.
Water Management Strategies in Anticipation of Drought

In response to the El Nino-driven drought forecast, experts emphasize the importance of proactive water resource management. The Kenyir Dam, one of Southeast Asia's largest, is identified as a critical component in mitigating drought impacts. Its management is crucial for regulating water resources within the Terengganu River Basin. Studies conducted prior to the dam's construction, including environmental impact assessments, provide data to guide optimal water release strategies during dry periods, ensuring the survival of habitats in vulnerable areas.
The Role of Syarikat Air Terengganu (SATU)

Syarikat Air Terengganu Sdn Bhd (SATU), the state's water operator, is expected to play a vital role in preparing for the predicted drought. Established on December 1, 2023, SATU aims for more efficient and integrated management of Terengganu's water resources, with most water-related bodies now under the supervision of the Lembaga Sumber Air Terengganu (LAUT). This integrated approach is seen as beneficial for developing sustainable and long-term strategies to address potential water shortages, aligning policies and guidelines with the predicted climatic challenges.

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What role does the El Nino forecast play in Terengganu drought risk?

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