What sea surface temperature signals showed La Niña emerged in September 2025?

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La Niña Emergence Signalled by Below-Average Sea Surface Temperatures in Equatorial Pacific

La Niña conditions re-emerged in September 2025, as evidenced by the widening of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below the average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This re-establishment of La Niña followed a period of neutral conditions after a brief spell of weak La Niña between December 2024 and March 2025.
Below-Average Sea Surface Temperatures Observed

The primary indicator for the emergence of La Niña in September 2025 was the observation of sea surface temperatures that were lower than the historical average. This cooling trend specifically manifested across the central and eastern regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a key geographical area for this climate pattern.
Persistence Through Winter Expected

The current La Niña event is projected to continue its presence through the upcoming winter season. However, there is a notable probability of a transition back to neutral climate conditions occurring between January and March 2026, with a 55 percent chance estimated for this shift.
Predicted Weakness Limits Global Impact

The US National Weather Service has indicated that this particular La Niña is expected to remain weak. This predicted weakness suggests a reduced capacity to significantly cool global temperatures or to substantially intensify hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, a typical consequence of stronger La Niña events.
Historical Context of La Niña Events

The recent re-emergence of La Niña occurs after the unusually protracted 2020–2023 event, which was the first "triple-dip" La Niña of the 21st century. While that event amplified both drought and flooding globally, the current La Niña's anticipated weakness may result in less pronounced or "conventional" winter impacts.

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What sea surface temperature signals showed La Niña emerged in September 2025?

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