What strength is the upcoming La Nina anticipated to be?

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The upcoming La Niña is anticipated to be of weak or moderate strength.

The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) predicts that the La Niña phenomenon, characterised by wetter weather conditions, is expected to commence between July and September this year. These wetter conditions are forecast to reach their peak towards the end of the year and potentially extend into early 2025. International forecast models suggest that this incoming La Niña event will likely be of weak or moderate intensity.
Expected Commencement and Duration

MetMalaysia has indicated that the La Niña phenomenon is projected to begin in the period between July and September of the current year. La Niña events can typically persist for a duration ranging from five to 18 months, meaning its influence could be felt for over a year.
Potential Impact on Monsoon Seasons

The onset of the northeast monsoon season, which usually occurs in November, could be influenced by La Niña. This combination might lead to an extended period of moist weather conditions along the east coast of the peninsula, potentially lasting until March of the following year.
Influence on Tropical Storms and Regional Weather

During a La Niña period, an increase in tropical storm activity is anticipated in the western Pacific Ocean. This heightened activity could consequently bring moist weather conditions to the west coast of Sabah and northern Sarawak.
Historical Context of La Niña Events

The most recent La Niña episode commenced in 2020 and concluded in early 2023. Previous La Niña events have been associated with significant weather impacts, including major floods in the Klang Valley in December 2021 and March 2022, as well as in Baling, Kedah, in July 2022.

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What strength is the upcoming La Nina anticipated to be?

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