Which region is forecast to be hardest hit by travel decline?

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Asia Pacific is Forecast to Experience the Hardest Hit from Travel Decline

International travel is projected to decline by at least 10.5 per cent in 2020, marking the most significant year-on-year drop on record. The Asia Pacific region is expected to bear the brunt of this downturn, with a forecast decline of 15.4 per cent, largely driven by China. This estimate represents a substantial revision from earlier projections, which had benchmarked the impact against the 2003 SARS outbreak and predicted a more modest 1.5 per cent fall.
Asia Pacific Faces Significant Travel Reduction

The Asia Pacific region is specifically identified as the most severely impacted geographical area. A 15.4 per cent decrease in travel is anticipated for this region throughout 2020. China is a key factor contributing to this projected decline, underscoring the extensive disruption experienced within its travel sector.
Downside Risks Could Worsen Travel Decline

Further exacerbating the situation, significant downside risks exist if global containment measures against the coronavirus are intensified. In such a scenario, the consultancy warns that the overall decline in travel could be as severe as 17.9 per cent. This highlights the volatile and uncertain nature of the current travel landscape.
Global Impact on Travel and Economy

The projected decline in international travel is a significant blow to the global tourism and leisure sector, which is a substantial contributor to the world economy. Travel and tourism collectively account for over 10 per cent of global economic growth and support approximately 320 million jobs worldwide. The ongoing pandemic and the resulting drastic measures by governments are causing widespread disruption.
Recovery Expected, but Not Until 2023

Despite the severity of the current downturn, the consultancy anticipates a swift recovery once the situation stabilises. Historical data from previous downturns indicates that travel demand has shown resilience in bouncing back. However, it is projected that travel levels will not fully return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023.

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Which region is forecast to be hardest hit by travel decline?

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