Why are durian prices falling despite strong import growth in China?

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Durian Prices Decline Amidst Robust Import Growth in China Due to Oversupply and Easing Consumer Spending

Durian prices in China have experienced a downward trend despite a significant 47 per cent year-on-year increase in imports during the first half of 2026. This phenomenon is primarily attributed to a surplus of fruit from Southeast Asian producers following bumper harvests, coupled with a moderation in Chinese consumer spending and an expansion of supply sources. While demand remains strong in the long term, it has not kept pace with the accelerated production, leading to increased stock levels and downward pressure on wholesale prices.
Oversupply from Bumper Harvests and Increased Production

Southeast Asian durian producers are actively seeking to offload surplus fruit resulting from abundant harvests. This oversupply is a direct consequence of increased production, particularly as trees planted six to ten years ago in Malaysia are now reaching maturity, contributing to higher volumes. The overall import volume surged to 1.07 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, a substantial rise from 708,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025, indicating a significant increase in the availability of durians in the Chinese market.
Shifting Consumer Spending Habits and Increased Stock Levels

Wholesale prices in China have eased due to a combination of factors including increased supply from multiple origins, higher existing stock levels, and a more cautious approach to consumer spending. While demand for durians in China is considered strong over the long term, its growth rate has not matched the pace of production expansion. This imbalance, coupled with a more prudent consumer sentiment, has contributed to the downward pressure on prices, making the fruit more affordable for a wider consumer base.
Diversification of Supply Sources and Competitive Landscape

Thailand continues to dominate China's durian import market, accounting for 81 per cent of the total value with US$3.79 billion in the first half of 2026, largely due to its established logistics and quality control systems. Vietnam, which gained approval for fresh durian exports in 2022, followed with US$846 million (18 per cent), although it has encountered occasional quality issues. Malaysia has seen a remarkable 342 per cent year-on-year increase in its shipments, reaching US$30.26 million, as its production capacity expands. The growing number of import channels and the increased availability from various countries have collectively boosted consumer choice and contributed to more affordable prices.

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Why are durian prices falling despite strong import growth in China?

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