Why could new animal contacts raise the risk of human pandemics?

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New Animal Contacts Amplify Pandemic Risk Through Increased Virus Transmission

New encounters between animal species, driven by climate change, significantly elevate the risk of novel viruses infecting humans and subsequently triggering pandemics. This phenomenon arises as rising global temperatures force mammals to migrate from their native habitats, leading them to interact with species they have not previously encountered. These unprecedented interspecies contacts facilitate the transmission of viruses, with current estimates suggesting at least 10,000 viruses circulating among wild mammals possess the capacity to infect humans. Projections indicate that by 2070, climate change could instigate approximately 15,000 new instances of viruses jumping between animal species.
Climate-Induced Migration and Novel Species Interactions

The fundamental driver behind increased animal contact is climate change, which compels mammals to seek out cooler environments. As these animals abandon their established territories, they inevitably cross paths with other species, creating novel ecological interactions. A comprehensive study modelling the movements of over 3,139 mammal species under various global warming scenarios revealed that these new contacts between different mammals are expected to effectively double. This surge in interspecies encounters is projected to occur globally, with particular concentrations anticipated in regions such as tropical Africa and Southeast Asia.
Amplified Zoonotic Threat from Increased Viral Spillover

The increased frequency of species encountering one another directly correlates with a higher likelihood of viral spillover events, known as zoonotic transmission. Researchers have identified that at least 10,000 distinct viruses are currently circulating among wild mammals, many of which have the potential to jump to humans. The study forecasts that by 2070, climate change could lead to at least 15,000 new instances of viruses transferring between animal species. This surge in cross-species viral transmission creates a more fertile ground for the emergence of new diseases that could pose a significant threat to human health.
Concentration of Risk in Populated Areas and the Role of Bats

The geographical distribution of these novel animal contacts is also a critical factor in pandemic risk. Global warming is predicted to cause these initial interspecies encounters to occur in areas with higher human population densities. This proximity increases the vulnerability of human populations and provides potential epicentres for the global spread of any newly emerged viruses. Notably, bats, due to their capacity for long-distance flight, are identified as a unique threat, accounting for a substantial majority of potential first encounters between mammal species, particularly in Southeast Asia.
Pervasive Risk Across Warming Scenarios

The threat of increased viral transmission due to climate change is not confined to worst-case emission scenarios. Modelling suggests that even milder climate change scenarios could result in more cross-species transmission than more extreme warming projections. This is because a slower rate of warming allows animals more time to travel and adapt to changing conditions, thereby increasing the duration and extent of their interactions with novel species. The researchers project that most of these initial species contacts will occur between 2011 and 2040 and will continue to increase thereafter, underscoring the immediate and ongoing nature of this threat.

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Why could new animal contacts raise the risk of human pandemics?

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