Why do domestic political narratives trap US and Iran in escalation?

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Domestic political narratives trap the US and Iran in escalation because both governments need any deal to look like a win rather than a compromise, driving inflated claims and unstable benchmarks.

The renewed armed exchanges in and around the Strait of Hormuz persist partly because the US and Iran cannot publicly accept outcomes that would concede leverage. American leaders cannot easily concede that Iran has acquired leverage through attacks on shipping, while Iranian leaders cannot accept an arrangement that appears to place the country’s coastline, oil exports and nuclear programme under permanent American supervision. As a result, both sides seek agreements they can present as victories, not compromises, which fuels maximalist language and constantly changing benchmarks.
US and Iran both require “victory” framing for any pause or deal
The escalation dynamic is sustained by domestic political narratives that shape what each leadership can afford to admit. Washington struggles to frame a pause as anything other than restoring freedom of navigation and preventing further attacks, while Tehran struggles to frame any arrangement as anything other than preserving its strategic leverage at Hormuz. When domestic audiences interpret concessions as weakness, leaders face pressure to maintain a posture consistent with “winning” rather than settling.
Inflated claims and shifting benchmarks keep expectations unrealistic
Because each side needs outcomes to be sellable as wins, the language around negotiations becomes inflated and maximalist. The benchmarks for what counts as success keep changing, so a temporary pause does not settle the underlying dispute over what the armistice is supposed to achieve. In practice, that makes each pause vulnerable to the next incident, since the next event can be used to argue that the previous claims were insufficient or the other side did not deliver.
Each concession is portrayed as coercive success, not a mutual trade
The domestic narrative pressure pushes concessions to be disguised as coercive success, rather than as reciprocal compromise. This affects how agreements are structured and sustained, because concessions can be reversed quickly when political pressure rises. For example, Washington authorised certain Iranian oil sales until August 21, then revoked that arrangement after tanker attacks and shortened the wind-down period to July 17, illustrating how transactional elements can shift under renewed escalation.
The lack of a durable settlement mechanism amplifies narrative-driven escalation
Even when pauses are arranged, the absence of strong verification, adjudication and enforcement mechanisms means incidents can quickly turn into accusations that domestic narratives amplify. Attribution is also increasingly difficult amid missiles, drones, naval mines, proxy forces and unattributed strikes, so retaliation may occur before responsibility is conclusively established. With domestic political needs pulling both sides toward credible “victory” claims, every explosion becomes an opportunity to escalate rather than to pause for investigation.

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Why do domestic political narratives trap US and Iran in escalation?

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